NEOH
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Just about every model has the screw hole... so much for the models not being consistent! A low in western MD on the WV border typically produces for OH. What's surprising is to see so much snow forecasted for areas NE of here in WNY. Their proximity to the low isn't any better than this area. The models have the majority of the precip to the North and Northeast of the low with very little on the backside which seems odd.
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Thanks for the info. This is starting to feel like the hyped storm a few weeks back. I think we ended up with 2 or 3" which seems plausible once again.
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It will be interesting to watch the evolution of tomorrow's storm. 12z NAM has a good low position for Ohio... but not much precip in the NW side. Seems like Northern Ohio is sandwiched between a precip shield to the NW and SE for a few hours before filling in. Hoping for a more expansive precip shield as I'm not sure what would cause the gap over this area.
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Wonder if the heavier snow might go further south tonight... just looking at the radar and hrrr it would appear that way.
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There were some heavy returns on radar near 271/480 last night. It was windy and the snow turned fluffy so perhaps I under measured. I'd gladly give up some of these smaller snows for a large one. Tough to get a big synoptic system in this pattern.
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2.8" last night. Wasn't expecting quite that much.
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We'll probably see a flare up as winds back more westerly. I bet ice is forming pretty rapidly on the open water with the cold temps which is probably cutting down on moisture.
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Picked up 2.4" last night.
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The NAM and WRF continue to highlight the eastern cuyahoga/western geauga area on southeast. The fetch will be coming over an area of relatively ice free water.
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The GFS weenie runs continue... with multiple storm chances for the OV region. The Euro looked good as well. We have the brief (and light) LES event tonight/tomorrow, clipper Sunday, and the mid-week storm on the table. Great to have an active pattern for a change.
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The WRF has the band as well. The arw is NE of here, and the nmm is about the same location as the NAM. It will definitely be driven by an upstream connection which is a wild card.
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Looking forward to a more active pattern. Hopefully it delivers for the lower lakes region. Noticed that CLE's snowfall total looked low compared to surrounding areas. Not surprising I guess. You can really notice the lengthening days. Over 10 hours of daylight now... about the same amount of daylight as November 9th.
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If we could only keep some open water on the lake we'd probably see more of these events throughout the winter.
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My measurement was probably off as it sounds like most came in with around 8". Still getting some decent bursts of snow.
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I measured 6.2" at 6:30am. There is some drifting so may not be exactly accurate. What a nice surprise... lake enhancement definitely helped. We spend days tracking events that rarely deliver... this was one of the better short terms storms we've had.
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Snow is just starting to come down in Chagrin. Nice flake size. Temps are just above freezing though. We'll see what tonight brings.
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Nice view of the lake today, and snow cover in Northeast Ohio which will likely be gone by later today. Lots of open water over the lake as most of the ice has shifted up the lake. Let's hope we can get a few chances for LES once the pattern changes. Its starting to feel like late winter already for some reason.
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That's really cool.
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Looks like Winter will take a hiatus for awhile. Who knows how long but hopefully it warms up enough to melt some ice on the lake. It has been a good 1st half of Winter so far. We've nickeled and dimed our way to a decent snowfall total. Might be a stretch to get to average if we have to rely on synoptic systems.
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Waiving the white flag on this one. Radar is unimpressive with a bit of a sucker hole over the area... Not to mention the snow already dissipating on the nw side. 2-3 may be a stretch.
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Check out the mesoscale disco in the storm thread. And yeah... the HRRR is reeling back to the west.
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That's a pretty healthy precip shield moving north. Seems to be favoring the eastern row of counties though. Wonder if the precip shield will condense or stay fairly ragged throughout the event.
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Surprised the lakefront hasn't flipped over. CLE was reporting light snow. Starting to accumulate here. We are at a higher elevation... but not sure that makes a difference.
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I don't think it's going to be too much longer before the flip to snow. The precip turned over to mainly snow under the heavier returns which moved north. Radar is filling in the south now. Edit: As of 1:45 its all snow IMBY. There is a good chunk of moisture coming up from southern ohio. Looks like it will make a run for the eastern counties.
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Heavy ice pellets in Chagrin. Wonder how long the change to snow will take.
