Blizzard of 93

The day 15 single day ensemble snapshots show below normal temps holding at the end of their runs today on December 12th.

The 12z global ensembles still hold the favorable pattern in their day 10 to 15.

Clipper parade?

Your endless under cover waterings paid off.

CTP posted this festive forecast.

Lol, but it’s not too far away. The northern half of PA should see snow tomorrow. Also, this is the beginning of the pattern change. Our window opens next week.

You are correct sir! Tracking & more tracking.

The cold continues to hold in the east as well in week 2 on the three global ensembles.

There is good agreement among the 3 global ensembles that the favorable pattern holds at least through the second week of December. Ridging out west & the Aleutian low should continue to deliver cold air into the east. It should then just be a matter of time until we have opportunities for Winter weather.

Happy Thanksgiving to you! I’m thankful that Winter Storm tracking season is here!

35 was my Marysville low.

6z GFS gets the cold in place this weekend & then it gets very active with multiple Winter storm chances from around 5th through the end of the run. The run starts of with a healthy looking Clipper on the 5th. Then the stream gets involved & has a more impressive looking storm chance on the 9th. Let’s get the cold air in place & then hopefully we are tracking multiple chances.

Exactly… Maybe east coast to him means Richmond & DC ?

MDT got down to 36

The 0z GFS shows a crushing snowstorm chance this run for us on 12/7 into 12/8. The cold air is getting entrenched this weekend, so hopefully Winter storm chances like this aren’t too far away.

.25 rain overnight in Marysville.

NAM still has snow for most north of the turnpike for Thanksgiving am.

32 in Marysville currently

The 0z NAM gets front end snow from the turnpike area & to the north early on Turkey Day.

If the waves track under us, the right timing & precip intensity would help the winter weather cause.

Hopefully a Clipper or 2 get us a heavy coating while we wait for something more to develop with the cold pattern in place.

Here are CTP’s thoughts for Thanksgiving. All medium range model guidance tracks an area of low pressure northeast from the Lower Miss Valley late next week, likely spreading precipitation across PA for Thanksgiving Day. There remains plenty of uncertainty inherent in a day 5 forecast regarding the exact surface low track and resulting ptypes. However, a large majority of ensemble members support a moderate precipitation event late Wed night through Thursday with mean qpf around a half inch. Lack of a blocking high suggests any snow may be confined to a relatively narrow corridor on the northern edge of the precip shield. Early thermal profiles indicate the best chance for a few inches of snow will be over the N Mtns, with all rain likely near the Mason Dixon Line.

Here is the 6z GFS at the same time stamp.

Long way to go until Turkey day weather is resolved.

The 0z Euro was much different. It showed a 994 low tracking to Pittsburgh.