Blizzard of 93

I would like to get at least around 8 more inches of snow for my yard & also for MDT by the end of this season. The chart below from CTP has the Harrisburg snow totals since 1980. Currently MDT has 5.1 inches so far this season. Getting 8 more inches of snow, which would bring the the seasonal total to 13 inches. This would then have MDT beat some of the worst clunker years such as 1992, 1995, 1998, 2002 & 2012. I think MDT averages around 6 inches of snow in March & less than 1 inch in April, so getting 8 inches over the next 6 weeks is certainly possible. The last 3 years have brought double digit snow to MDT & the Harrisburg area in March. My best guess & hope & dream is that MDT gets 5 more inches to get double digit snow of 10 inches for the season.

I was looking back over some old threads of ours from March of the last few years to remind myself that we still have time to score snow yet. We still have a realistic 6 weeks to score snow to avoid a total failure snow season.

I was just joking around due to the frustration with the lack of snow. Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got....It is totally out of our control anyway ! Just like rooting for our favorite sports teams, they are going to win or lose despite how hard that root for them each game. It’s the same thing with our desire for snow. We unfortunately can’t just wish it into existence.

Haha ! I was just posting about snow chances when you posted this! Never give up!

For what it’s worth, the 18z GFS has still not given up on the winter storm potential for next Thursday. It tracks the low along the coast with enough cold for snow in the Central & Northern Susquehanna Valley. Maybe there is still a chance with this one or maybe it is just Happy Hour merriment!

Lol... I was thinking the same thing... There haven’t been 8 days that my heat has Not been on all winter ! It’s been a mild winter, but come on... it’s not like we have had day after day of 60 + degree weather. Also, people seem to forget that November & the first half of December were pretty cold as well. One more thing on this topic, if it isn’t going to snow, then the temps might as well be in the 60’s or 70’s !

The 18z EPS, at the end of its 144 hour run, continued to provide hope that the next Thursday storm could track under PA.

The 12z Euro provided snow for many in CTP for next Thursday. There is still a lot to resolve over the next few days. If the storm tracks under us, we will have a chance.

The 12z Euro liked the storm next Thursday. It also looks to be setting up another possible winter storm next weekend. This could be one of the better chances that we have had in a while. The EPO looks to be heading down toward neutral by then, heading into slight negative range. The MJO is heading towards the COD. The GFS & Canadian have also shown this storm chance for next Thursday on & off the last couple of days. Hopefully we get a 2 week plus window to score some snow before we close the season.

The 0z Euro has a winter storm chance for us next Wednesday into Thursday. It keep the low under us with Decent Highs to our north. It brings a good swath of snow to all of CTP. Only 8 days to go... let’s see if this becomes something legit to track?

That looks awesome. I was only 5 back in ‘82, so I don’t remember that one, but I wouldn’t mind a repeat in about 7 weeks! I thought I saw if posted somewhere that there was another more minor event in early April of 82 in the northeast? Did that one impact CTP as well ?

That was a great one as well! I even liked last year with the 3 events within around the first 4 days or so of March. I remember many of us were keying in on the last event of the 3, then then @Bubbler86 was all over the the second event that gave us a few inches. He made a great call on that one. That whole period was a lot of fun on here! MDT ended up with close to 12 inches with the 3 events all combined if I am not mistaken.

Great post! The last 3 Years in March, the Harrisburg area has had double digit snow. The -EPO & the MJO backing off into the COD for a bit should help to improve our chances in late Feb. & early March. I don’t care if it melts in 2 days, just get me the snow !

That’s what many people said in 2017, & then Harrisburg got a 17 inch HECS around March 20th ....

The EPO forecast on the EPS & GEFS for heading into negative territory looks to still be on track with it reaching neutral by the 24th & then heading down from there.

Great point about this place having an “all things go” type of 1 forum set up for all topics. We just need a decent winter storm to track to get the focus back on snow !

Yes, some even have a “Lawn & Garden” thread for discussion about bugs & cutting grass for those interested in that type of discussion.

Thanks for the kind words. Maybe I just need to stop reading the other forums that are frustrating me. The CTP crew is a mostly good group. I think that we just need some snow to make this place more fun again !

Yes, the snow maps can have wild swings from run to run. I was talking more about adding value with other maps like some of us do from time to time. You give great analysis & are the best poster on here by far ! My issue the last few days has been with the negative posters that add no value to the forum. We have mostly a good group, but some other regions are unbearable. I think that one good snow event would be just what we need to get this place going well again!

Of course, but this is a weather board...Why can’t they be posted ? I understand your point if someone is crazy & seriously says “lock it in” 10 days out. I think that most of us are more intelligent than that... Otherwise, why can’t we post a map just to show the model output & then analyze why it should or should not happen ?

I dread that day, usually in late March or early April when you know the snow season is over. It is easier for me to handle that day after a decent winter season in which we get near normal or above normal snow. We have 6 or maybe 7 (some years we get lucky during the first week of April) realistic weeks left to score some more snow. My only goal is to get MDT 5 more inches of snow in order to reach over 10 inches total this season so that they can avoid an all time futility snow record. Ok, one more little goal...how about a March HECS to make up for this dreadful winter ?!

Great points. However, I feel that this is a weather forum where maps should able to be posted for people to provide analysis. Most of us should know not to take a 10 to 15 day map as the absolute truth. They should be used just to spot trends & to look for pattern possibilities.

The Euro, GFS, & Canadian each have an interesting look around day 10, which coincides with the EPO flip to negative. There is a cutoff type of low in the middle of the country on each model. There are also 1040 + Highs in Ontario & Quebec at the same time. This could be something to track moving forward. If the cutoff emerges in time with the cold air in place, then we could be in business.

The EPS & GEFS at 0z both continued to flip the EPO to negative around February 25th. It then stays negative through the end of their runs, which should help to deliver cold in the east.

The Canadian out towards day 9 actually tries to keep a storm under us for a change.