Blizzard of 93

The 0z Euro continued to like the idea of Christmas snow. It actually brought the second wave in slightly stronger & delivered the best amounts just to the south of CTP. Previous Euro runs had placed the bullseye near I-80. We still have plenty of time to go to work out the details, but I think this has a chance to bring a minor event to CTP for Christmas!

The ensembles today continued to show improvement with the pattern change towards the end of December into early January. Snow amounts improved at 12z today for the day 10 to day 15 range over what they were showing the last several days.

CTP in their discussion today mentioned the possibility of our Christmas snow. They referenced the current difference between the Euro & GFS.

The Euro at 12z showed 2 chances of snow around Christmas. The first possibility is for some very light snow on Christmas Eve day from a weak wave. The second possibility is on Christmas night into early on the 26th from a wave that looks to be slightly stronger.

Hopefully more models join the Euro & deliver us some Christmas snow!

Ok, 1 more thing...

The new Euro weeklies issued this evening are starting the better pattern by early January. The run from week 3 to the end of the 6 week run looks amazing !

This could be a great winter if the advertised Euro pattern verifies !

Ok, moving forward, the warm up is not going to last much longer than the end of this week. The MJO is moving into phase 5 for the last week of the month, which is cold in El-Nino December’s.

There is a chance of a light snow event for Christmas that the 12z Euro showed again today!

4 hours ago, sauss06 said:

a trace? 8.8"

Yes, we are well above average snow for the season to date & below normal temps to date. I’ll post this again :

5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Wow.  Some of us have WAY different ideas of "worse".  That is quite a bold statement alright, and one that by December standards, is not true (assuming you like cold/winter type weather).  

I for one, love winter, and feel this December has been far more tolerable that many.  

100 % agree

We were running below normal temps all month until this weekend.

We just missed a major snow storm that hit about 200 miles south of us thanks to some amazingly bad timed temporary block that strengthened at the wrong time for us.

4 hours ago, sauss06 said:

 

we don't have to look so far in to the past either to find worse Decembers. 

100 % agree !

This pattern is not as bad as everyone thinks.

I think this place will be busy by next weekend!

The Euro & Canadian at 12z today like the idea of a weak wave around Christmas that could produce a little snow for CTP!

The 12z NAM says that many of us see some snow flakes this afternoon!?

The 6z GFS has a little snow for us on Christmas morning!

Only 9 more days to track it ...!

We need to keep our eye on a possible snow event for Christmas Eve & Christmas morning.

The models have been recently showing a weak over running type of storm that could produce an advisory level event. If the High pressure area to the north can strengthen slightly to lock in just a little more cold air, without suppressing the storm, we could be in a good spot for a chance at some Christmas snow ! 

Here is the 12z GEFS our through 384 hours, which takes us to New Year’s Eve. There are a few ensemble members that would make us happy! 

We have had many “great” patterns in the past that haven’t brought much snow. We have also had luck in patterns that have not looked great from a couple of weeks out. It doesn’t have to be cold, but just “cold enough” to get snow in December.

7 minutes ago, daxx said:

Here is my two cents so far on this Winter.  November this year acted like a Winter month we had a great storm and lots of below normal temps.  December so far not so great. It hasn't been a furnace, but snowfall wise blah.  We just missed a big ticket storm last week which would have made a big difference around here. It is mid December and we are looking at a possible two to three week crap pattern. In a crap pattern we may luck out and score, but I would not count on it. If January, February, and March produce which I think they will, December will be a distant memory.   Snow around the holidays is great, but not common.  Anyway too much talking from me.  Lots of Winter to go!  I think we will all be happy when this Winter ends.

Yes, it hurt that the storm last week missed by about 200 miles to our south. If we even got 3-6 inches from that, we would be on a top 10 snow year pace. As it is, we are in a good pace now, even if we get shut out in December.

Most of our great years, the snow comes in a 6-8 week period. Heck, 2010 around here was basically 1 great week in February !

The last run of the Euro weeklies set up a great looking pattern by mid January. If that is the case, we would have 2 solid months to score more snow through the middle of March.

The next couple of weeks do not look great, but also they do not look like a shut out pattern. We may just need to time something just right.

The 12z NAM likes the idea of a change to snow for some of us tomorrow.

20 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Starting to like prospects of a change to snow at end of this system.


.

Do you think most of CTP has the chance to change over to snow or just a portion of the area ?

We are in great shape with our seasonal snow total for this date. The 8.8 inches of snow at MDT back on November 15 basically covered the average snow amount through the end of December.

This chart shows many places are doing very well with snow at this time.

5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Sneaky light snow possible Wed night to Thurs morning...not much...but something lol.

Yes, CTP mentioned that there is a chance of up to 1- 2 inches of snow by Thursday.

The High Res NAM at 12z & 18z is on board !

37 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Joe B thinks every storm can surprise.  

He is one of the best with east coast storms. He has great knowledge of the history of east coast storms & the weather patterns that produced them over the decades. Sometimes he holds on to ideas for too long, but he does not change his forecast with each run of the models.

Joe Bastardi believes there is still room for this storm to come far enough north to impact our region up through at least NYC. He provided several reasons & east coast storms have proven to be one of his strengths over the years.

Also, he had a great post today on The Euro seasonal forecast, which just updated again. It portrays a fantastic pattern right through February.

Even if this storm ends up shutting us out, the game has just begun. We should have several winter storm chances this year!

The 0z EPS last night looked great!

There are about 20 of the 51 members that bring at least a few inches of snow to the LSV. A few members delivered great hits.

The overall mean low position & clusters of low locations off the coast improved also.

The mean snow amount also jumped up to 3-4 inches for the LSV.

Hopefully 12z keeps things going!

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

looking over 0Z's, I'm liking where we sit right now.  Nice trend N on precip maps on old GFS, Fv3 was about the same and CMC ticked S.  Euro came north as well.  You can also see the confluence looking better in the NE, and should lead to less suppressed solutions if that continues.  L structure is rather unique as it leaves behind a piece and the ULL closes off briefly.  I have a feeling this may turn into something as Showme suggested the other day.  Not sure it does anything for us, but its not something I've seen very often, so fun to watch.  

 

Yes, I like where we sit now as well.

The 0z Euro & the old GFS shifted north. Good snow on both models gets to just south of DC. 

Overall with this general set up, I like where we sit with about 5 days to go. The precip shields on the northwest side of the storm looks way underdone on the Euro & GFS. When considering the origin of the storm, the low position off of the NC/VA coast & the track from the south, there should be a much more pronounced area of precip further north than currently shown.

This storm & it’s associated precip look to be well established starting in the south central states. I like especially how the Euro tonight has significant snow into the southern parts of IL, IN, & OH, as well as a good portion of WV. Typically, when we see precip into those areas, it doesn’t take much to get precip into southern PA.

I would be more concerned if we were seeing snow only along the coast back to I-95 & hoping that it backed enough north & west to get us in the game. We usually fall short in those situations. This time I am more optimistic with seeing that good precip in the Midwest, heading into Kentucky & WV, & western VA. This should not miss us if the storm moves just a little bit more to the north.

In general, I think this set up will not take too much to get at least the LSV into the game. We probably won’t ever get into the bullseye, but I think we could still get a decent event here.

As CTP mentioned in their discussion this morning, the Canadian 0z run last night was ideal for CTP snow.

The New GFS upgrade at 6z brought the storm further north & put the LSV back in the game with 3-6 inches of snow. The run crushed MD & VA. We only would need a 50-100 mile shift north on this run to get into the heavy snow.

Hopefully 12z treats us well !

7 hours ago, sauss06 said:

we've all seen this dog and pony show before! 

Yes, we see this roller coaster with most east coast storms. Many of our better storms over the years have gone through these weather model ups & downs, before ending up delivering the snow.

I think this is far from over, especially for those of us south of I -80.

The 18z GFS & GEFS were a step in the right direction.