Blizzard of 93

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Unfortunately not having one of the biggies on our side is a concern. If one caves of starts back the other way by tomorrow night my white flag may fly. 

The UKMET is the # 2 ranked model.

It is much better than the GFS or Canadian 

Great write up by CTP !

I see that they mentioned the November storm that we had 2 months ago in regard to the potential of a good front end snow thump due to heavy precip rates. They also mention cold air staying anchored in for a good duration across most of our region.

I think If we get great precip rates to start, we can over perform on the front end.

The 18z GEFS still is offering a good range of options with several good hits. About 2 inches of this is from the Thursday night storm.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I think you are going to be right on this one...at least for those of us in the LSV.

Way too soon for anyone to declare victory. 

37 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hey Blizz...you're about to hit your first forum milestone.  I'm only 5 posts behind you so we'll both hit it tonight most likely.  So congrats to both of us!

I was wondering what JB has had to say about the weekend setup.  Is there anything you are able to share with us from him?

That’s great- Congrats as well!

This place has been buzzing with activity the last few days. Let’s keep it going!

As for JB, in this mornings video, he thought some of the modeled snow totals seemed too high. He thought CTP would land in the 3-6 inch snow range followed by Ice & rain to the south & east. He said it all depends on the second wave. If that develops as the Artic cold arrives, the snow totals especially to the south & east would increase. He didn’t think a large snowfall for our area was on the table because of a short term EPO spike this weekend.

He is very optimistic about the overall pattern moving forward & thinks all of us will end up with above average snow.

6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Until the UKIE and ICON completely abandon their snow>ZR>end scenarios I am siding with you (nut) and not giving up hope for a more frozen solution.  Like you said a decent snow over to zr then ending without it ever going to plain rain is totally acceptable.  As others have said, the zr coating locks in the cold and slows down the melting process tremendously.

I’m on this team too !

53 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

What i will say, is I'm not convinced of anything for weekend yet. 

Look at the HP.  It held ground a bit better for the Germans.  While I put little stock in it, it keeps my eyes turned.

and for those in the MA who were digging out from the 5 day earlier rainstorm, thats all I'm getting at.  Flow at 500 a little less ridgy, so flatter progression helps us on the fringe....lunatic fringe.

 

Long way to go !

Real Artic air tends to push its way around.

The preceding air mass before the event is a normal January air mass which is plenty cold.

We do Not have an intensifying low bombing out towards the Great Lakes. The existing cold will more than likely hold much longer than modeled & the new arctic air mass will likely flex its muscles to push this storm further south.

Just like our November storm, if precip arrives in a wall of heavy precip, we could put down a solid several inch front end thump. Remember that storm was supposed to mix with ice & then go to plain rain ?

Also, the heavy snow currently on the non- supportive models is not too far to the north right now.

We also DO still have model support for heavy snow with the 2nd best model for a few runs in a row with the UKMET. I also just saw that the ICON is looking good for snow.

The Euro on Sunday afternoon had 2 feet of snow for the LSV & had us in the bullseye for a few runs prior. The GFS also had several runs a couple of days ago with us in the bullseye.

This far from over !

50 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

GFS showing 3" for Thursday and 8" for the weekend. looks like something next Wednesday or Thursday too. gonna be fun times ahead, Buckle the chin straps and lace up those boots.   

Yes sir !

The Euro weeklies looked great yet again last night. The good pattern should roll straight through the end of February.

Lots of tracking ahead for us !

18 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug.  That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined).

 

 

UKMET for the win !

It looks like Euro & GFS runs from just a couple of days ago.

Long way to go!

26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and to your point, look at the HP in the NE during storm #1.  It is SLIGHTLY stronger and holds just a bit longer to keep white from turning wet.  Watch that HP in the next couple days, as it alone can bring us to the promise land.  

Yes, we are dealing with a pressing legit Artic air mass pressing down.

26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved.  So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing.  It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer. 

Yes, there is good snow pack to our south. There is true Artic air pressing from the north & west. I think things will work out in our favor this weekend for snow.

5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The best times to see significant backend events are when are sharpening trough with true arctic air are racing into the area.  The speed at which the cold air is advecting in Sunday morning is incredibly rapid.  There's a 20 degree temperature drop from 35 to 15 in 6 hours!!  I'm definitely no expert.  But, I have seen a few really good backend events and the real juicy ones have the arctic air rushing in with the wave.

Yes, we have won with this before.

3 minutes ago, daxx said:

Agree back side of storms are usually a flop. I

Yes, they usually flop when we get some major coastal that is supposed to retrograde and throw back moisture as it bombs out. 

This weekend is a very different set up.

1 minute ago, daxx said:

The models might be on to something with backside. Euro has it, gfs has it and now fv3.

It’s Not wrap around back side snow. 

It is 2 weak waves of low pressure. The first one heads towards PA & gives us snow to mix to rain. The second wave develops to our south & rides up the coast as the Artic air arrives. There is a ton of moisture & the models will bounce around a few more days with the boundaries.

I think many would sign up for this 18z GFS Kuchera ratio snow map.

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

93/16 (and others im sure) had flips to pingers....which is frozen rain btw.

The Valentines storm in 07 switched back to snow at the end in many places in CTP after 5 inches of sleet!

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Excellent.  Not a bad 12z run.  Knowing the Ens will likely follow the OP, if you see anything worth mention, let us know.

GEFS/EURO keeping this close, is a win for now.

Not a bad 12z Euro at all for us in the LSV. It is a crushing snow storm for places in CTP not far away from the LSV.

The LSV is snow to mix to back to snow, with a ton of moisture. We only need a very small track adjustment or slightly earlier cold air press to bring the LSV back into the All snow bullseye.

Attention to our friend in Williamsport ...you are in the snow bullseye on this run!

Just now, canderson said:

When is the last time we went from snow>rain>back end of snow? Backend snow here is pretty rare. 

With this set up of cold air in place up front & a series of lows with Artic air pressing, we can do snow to mix to back to snow.

25 minutes ago, daxx said:

Euro a .25 to .50 for most.  A good 2 to 4.

Yes, round 1 on the Euro Thursday night & Friday am is 2 to 4 inches of snow for most of us.

Here is the 12z GEFS mean snow amount through next Monday early am. Lots of good solutions among the 21 ensemble members.

22 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

How much sleet & freezing rain does the gfs give us?


. Pro

It looks like the 12z GFS for the Saturday event starts all of CTP as snow. Then south east of I-81 mixes for a time before we all end as more snow.

20 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

back a page or 2 ago, someone mentioned the GFS gave us almost a foot for the weekend(11") but if i looked at that correctly, was that 11" a combination of Thursday clipper (4") and Saturday/Sunday (7")?

Yes, here is the 12z GFS for just the Thursday night event & the combined total snow amounts for both events through next Sunday night.

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

At the age of 53 I keep getting younger and younger on here!  

Since everyone is sharing today, I’m 41 & my actual name is Mike. 

3 hours ago, JTrout said:

Good Morning Folks,

I found this forum last year(along with the circus of a forum down in the Mid Atlantic). I used to do a pay per year weather service forum. You guys are just as good and provide more detailed info, along with a lot more of it from multiple sources. I don't really plan to post a whole lot because I don't know enough to add any really useful information. It's really refreshing to know other people like me exist, when major weather of any kind come around to our area, my wife hates me. haha. Like, thinks I am nuts that I can spend so much time staring at the radar, looking outside, other forums, cranky's blogs/tweets, NOAA, Horst's site, Bobby M's facebook videos, etc.......All I am trying to say is, I appreciate you guys and everything you post. I finally joined the forum officially because I needed to get that off my chest.  Also, even though I stalk the lower forum. I will not be posting this down there. Wayyyy to hostile and they probably don't consider southern Pa the Mid Atlantic for some reason. I have a lot of respect for those of you who have the balls to post down there. 

Thanks

-Josh S.

Welcome aboard !

You picked a great time to join !

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

No I didn’t. I take it it’s good?

Yes, it’s epic.

go back a page in this thread & feast your eyes on the Euro

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

No I didn’t. I take it it’s good?

Yes, it’s epic.

go back a page in this thread & feast your eyes on the Euro.