Blizzard of 93

16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I never give up.   Easily 1” and still dumping.  

Yes! That’s the spirit !

Moderate snow in Marysville, all surfaces covered.

Yes, it’s actually just getting started!

Can we give it a chance ?

8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Making tiny progress with temp, now down to 33.4.  Signs of snow beginning to stick showing up.

Dew points are still in the mid 20’s in the Harrisburg area

Snow is picking back up in Marysville.

I’m riding the old school NAM & Euro combo ! If they agree in the short term, usually it works out for storm totals.

Here is the 18z NAM & 12z EPS 

9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

Yes, very surprised this late. They should at least let things play out a little more. I just hope it doesn’t cause a problem on the roads with general public thinking it won’t be so bad.

This will make it more fun when they bump it back up in a few hours.

CTP now map updated at 1:35 pm.

Still has Harrisburg & Carlisle at 6 inches of snow.

The Euro at 12z also brought the snow line further south & east than its run last night. The 6 inch snow line runs just a few miles to the north of I-81 & I-78, & the 4 inch line runs across the turnpike through the LSV.

15 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Snowing here now

Yes, Same here in Marysville.

We are wasting no time with virga !

20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

34 in Akron

dp 26

Hoping the front end does well.  

Some 12z ticked snow line back south a bit. 

Every little bit helps when you dont have much to work with.....lol

Yes, the 12z GFS & Canadian both ticked south & east with better snow totals.

For Harrisburg, the GFS & Canadian give about 2 more inches of snow over the amounts that their previous runs showed.

59 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

One thing to consider is the front end thump. If that does indeed happen and places north of Flathead's house get 4 or 5 hours of 1 or 2"/hr rates, that's potentially eight-to-ten inches, not including the aggregate of the hours where it's only .5 per hour or so and then any sleet. I guess it's not impossible for places like Duncannon, Newport, Blain, Cassville, and Claysburg to verify an 8-12 call before a switch. 

That’s a great point!

That’s what the November storm did in the Harrisburg area with 1-2 inch per hour rates for just about 6 hours. We got 8.8 inches from that thump.

CTP is doubling down on the 5-6 snow range from the turnpike on north with this map issued at 10:35.

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

Horst moved everything NW about 30 miles. Harrisburg 2-4”, anyone SE see rain. State Colege 6-12”. 

 

Harrisburg is still in the 3-6 on that map

My handbook says to just hug this map !

Something that I thought of for the sake of lurkers to this forum or folks dropping by from other regions, is that we need to clarify what area that we are referencing when commenting.

Not everyone on here lives in Lancaster, York or Franklin County. Some of the comments need to reflect what area you are referencing or post a map to clarify.

I lurked for years on here before I joined & it was tough to get a grasp of things until you learned where everyone is from. The better posters made it easy, but you had to sift through several posts to get quality info sometimes.

Many places from the turnpike on north will do well today & our I- 80 crew should get crushed.

Just some thoughts on storm day to try to make this place better!

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Does anyone know what Horst is forecasting?

Haven’t heard in like 3 min.

Lol

Nice !!!

I almost spit out my coffee!

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't see anyone on the ledge. The storm LOOKS to evolve the way I expected. No ledge, realism.

I’m riding the CTP train on this one for my realism & optimism!

Just now, bubbler86 said:

I am just discussing the weather this AM.  I do think I went too high on my forecast yesterday even for Mag and 2001. 

Not a flake has fallen yet.

no one has won or lost yet!

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Yes. It’s the column that matters! Blizz love your positive view. It’s the weekend so heck at least no work and some snow 

Thanks !

Yes, weekend storms are the best. 

We can track all day & watch the weather unfold & not need to travel!

Hey @pasnownut !

I need some help in here talking people off of the ledge this morning!

4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight.  I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable.  We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen.  A bit depressing.  

The blizzard of 93 ( & no of course I’m not thinking we are getting a blizzard...just recalling a storm....) & many, many, many ... storms have started with surface temps near or slightly above freezing.

please see @MAG5035 post from overnight with the upper air map

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Definitely! We want a storm attacking a fresh arctic air mass.

Obviously,

However, my point is look what happened in December, it was was Congrats NC !

Sometimes Artic air invades & you are left hoping for an over performing clipper!

Since we are name dropping in here, the great met Joe D’Aleo had an excellent post this morning. He said that Artic high pressure tobthe north & west of storms should never be underestimated. He discussed how he thinks cold air will hang in longer, & mentioned old school methods of forecasting before models existed. 

At this point, we just need to see how things play out. A ton of moisture is heading our way & we should be cold enough for snow to start. Heavy precip can overcome marginal surface temps with no problem. I expect snow to stick immediately to untreated surfaces.

No one in November thought we were getting 8 inches of snow because of time of year, ground temps, sun angle & other ideas that ended up being wrong.

Many times when we have a very cold arctic high in place, the storm gets squashed way to the south.

Sometimes, you need to roll the dice & hope you win.