Blizzard of 93

Just now, bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  No matter what the NAM said it was just an interesting compare to the 18Z. Would have been more fun if it trended less amped vs. more. 

The NAM tends to over amp especially in its long range.

We also have a couple of inches of snow tomorrow night to enjoy before the weekend storm begins. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

The radar maps must be a bit misleading.  They go in 3 hour increments and there is only decent snow in one of them...must be snowing hard at the start of the previous one and up until the end of the one after.   Still grasping at straws to call this a good run...

It’s also the very long range for the NAM.

Just now, paweather said:

CTP pretty darn bullish. I like where we are. Not staying up for the EURO so hopefully GFS can bring me some good dreams tonight. 

Yes, CTP has been confident on this for the last few days.

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Unless the GFS pulls a switch-er-oo with the NAM I think I'll pass on the Euro tonight also. 

If we lose The UKMET & Euro, then it’s time to begin to worry. 

Most models since 0z last night have put the I-81 corridor & north into the 8-10 inch show range.

The NAM tonight continues that idea.

13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

LSV has lost the Nam for tonight.  At least as far as snow is concerned. 

 

If this is wrong... I don’t want to be right !

The I-81 crew  & north of that would take this & run !

Just now, canderson said:

... or a flood warning. 

Or a winter storm warning for up to a foot of snow !

37 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Remember that this map only goes through 7 am Sunday , so most places, including the LSV, are forecast to go back to snow after this which would add 1 to 2 inches at least to these amounts, which would then bring most places right back to the same snow totals that the 12z Euro showed.

As it is, I would be fine with the 8 -9 inches of snow that the Harrisburg area gets on that map as shown.

8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

WWA will likely be hoisted at 2 AM. WSW for Saturday/Sunday will likely go up at 2 AM Friday.

Yes! As someone mentioned earlier that will be awesome to be under an advisory & a watch !

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP's point and click for me is depressing.

Saturday: rain, sleet, and snow 

Saturday night: rain

Sunday: rain

I just looked now at the point & click for Maytown & it looks more wintry than what you posted...

The point & click not too far away from you in Harrisburg has snow for Saturday afternoon. Then after 1am, mixing with Sleet, freezing rain & rain. Then Sunday says Snow & sleet changing back to all snow.

CTP has a great discussion this evening & believes our region is getting a major winter storm. The also mentioned the better trends with today’s models bringing colder solutions with more snow & ice further south.

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Dramatic reversal after the 0Z rainstorm last night...almost back to the original snowier solution.  Easier to see here on the zoom in...

This looks like the last 2 runs of the Euro & UKMET!

45 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

GGEM/CMC is also wet for the LSV.  Glad we have the Euro and especially the Nam. 

The Euro, UKMET & NAM is a great combination to have on your side a few days out!

The 0z EPS has re-joined the party!

Here are the EPS & Control snow maps.

Also, here is the EPS low cluster map for 12z Sunday which shows the improvement.

By the way, the Euro only gave most of us only about 1 inch for the Thursday night appetizer storm.

My point is, you only need to deduct 1 inch from the map above to get the weekend total snow amounts!

The 0z Euro was a major step in the right direction & was very close to returning to the awesome solutions from a couple of days ago.

The 0z Euro tracks the low to central VA & then it moves to southern NJ .

For points north & west of Harrisburg the Euro is depicting a major snowstorm.

For the LSV, on the Euro, There is a major front end thump of snow, then mix to ice, then rain especially for south of the PA turnpike, then back to a period of snow to end it.

The VAST majority of the snow accumulation comes from the front end thump for the LSV.

I think at this point most of us would sign up for this & run ! Although, we still have a few days to get back to the even better runs of a couple of days ago.

Here is tonight’s 0z Euro snow map:

Here is the 0z GEFS.

It improved from 18z 

Several good solutions for CTP

While we wait in the Euro...

Here are the 0z GFS & Canadian 

13 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

anyone have a Ukie snow map they can post ?

 

I saw this posted in another forum a little while ago for the 0z UKMET.

CTP & the LSV still VERY much in this game !!!

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Love it. Come on Euro gives us a little hope tonight. 

I saw this posted in another forum. The 18z EPS has several low tracks that could work in our favor.

Hopefully 0z joins the Rebuilding momentum!

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I sense you get yours this weekend. Hope so at least.

Meanwhile I’m inflating my canoe. 

I’m getting my shovel ready !

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Unfortunately not having one of the biggies on our side is a concern. If one caves of starts back the other way by tomorrow night my white flag may fly. 

The UKMET is the # 2 ranked model.

It is much better than the GFS or Canadian 

Great write up by CTP !

I see that they mentioned the November storm that we had 2 months ago in regard to the potential of a good front end snow thump due to heavy precip rates. They also mention cold air staying anchored in for a good duration across most of our region.

I think If we get great precip rates to start, we can over perform on the front end.

The 18z GEFS still is offering a good range of options with several good hits. About 2 inches of this is from the Thursday night storm.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I think you are going to be right on this one...at least for those of us in the LSV.

Way too soon for anyone to declare victory. 

37 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hey Blizz...you're about to hit your first forum milestone.  I'm only 5 posts behind you so we'll both hit it tonight most likely.  So congrats to both of us!

I was wondering what JB has had to say about the weekend setup.  Is there anything you are able to share with us from him?

That’s great- Congrats as well!

This place has been buzzing with activity the last few days. Let’s keep it going!

As for JB, in this mornings video, he thought some of the modeled snow totals seemed too high. He thought CTP would land in the 3-6 inch snow range followed by Ice & rain to the south & east. He said it all depends on the second wave. If that develops as the Artic cold arrives, the snow totals especially to the south & east would increase. He didn’t think a large snowfall for our area was on the table because of a short term EPO spike this weekend.

He is very optimistic about the overall pattern moving forward & thinks all of us will end up with above average snow.