Blizzard of 93

The latest run of the HRRR says good morning:

The Euro- Kuchera ratio -snow map yet again at 0z looks great for CTP.

The last few runs of the HRRR look good as well! This is the latest which only takes us to 6pm Thursday. 

I think the models today & tonight are playing catch up with the Euro. 

Here is its Kuchera ratio from 12z today.

6 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. 

 

Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one. 

I agree, but the trend has been colder on the models from 12z ,& the 3k NAM in particular has made a significant jump up with snow totals for the LSV at 0z

Ratios will play a large role, but the trend is there.

The 3k High Res NAM really upped the ante for the LSV on its 0z run ! In previous runs it was only showing a couple inches in York & Lancaster, but now it shows this :

2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead.

The EPS that I posted is just for our current storm with amounts through Friday!

Yes, the pattern also  looks great heading into early December !

This radar showing the wall of precip streaming north into our cold air dome with dew points in the teens has me fired up!

P.S. we get to do this for 4 more months !

The EPS ensemble mean at 12z today was flat out impressive. This would normally be a nice map for a 10 day period in mid winter!

Here it is for the storm that is on our doorstep! Even if you cut the amounts in half, it would still be a great snow storm for the middle of November.

The 0z EPS was fantastic again & the 6z NAM also says good morning to CTP!

Again, if you cut these numbers in half or more, I think most of us would be very happy with this first event of the season.

I just looked over the 12z EPS run from earlier today. It was impressive even for mid winter standards. The mean amounts ranged from near 6 inches of snow near Lancaster to around 8 inches near Harrisburg & then over 10 inches back towards State College.

Even more outstanding was the fact that ALL of the 51 EPS ensemble members had significant snowfall for all of CTP.

Hopefully the 0z Euro & EPS continue to deliver! 

The 0z GFS & Canadian continue to bring the goods for CTP!

The 0z NAM looks great!

The NAM 0z Kuchera ratio map actually ups the ante for snow in the LSV.

Here are both the 18z & 0z NAM with both Kuchera & 10-1 maps to compare.

Today was another great day of model runs for our first CTP wide winter weather event!

CTP will probably be hoisting some Winter Storm watches by later tonight or tomorrow morning.

ABC-27 out of Harrisburg, which has typically been conservative with snow forecasts over the years, has a very aggressive snow map out, with 3-7 inches of snow for many of us.

56 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

well **** look at that. 

Yes, & the overnight models that I posted  All agree at this time !

The 0z Euro & 6z NAM continued to up the ante for CTP! Yes, the Euro map is Kuchera ratio!

The GFS & Canadian are looking good for winter weather on Thursday!

Here is the 0z GFS with both the standard 10-1 ratio map, which is highly unlikely, & also the Kuchera ratio GFS, which is more realistic. 

The 0z Canadian is just a standard 10-1 ratio, but it agrees with the favorable storm track for CTP & has the same frozen precip coverage as the GFS tonight.

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Just about every model trended colder today with the storm later this week. Most of us should see some snow or frozen precip on Thursday. The snow maps are most likely over doing the snow totals. The track of the low looks favorable & if the timing is right, we could cash in & get on the snow board this week.

Let’s see if the 0z runs tonight continue the positive trends!

Where is everyone?!? This is our first legit chance at frozen precip. For now, I’ll just reply to my own post!

The 0z NAM came in colder & more favorable for frozen for the LSV & all of CTP. Even if we cut those amounts in half or more, I think we could all live with that to get things started this season.

Just about every model trended colder today with the storm later this week. Most of us should see some snow or frozen precip on Thursday. The snow maps are most likely over doing the snow totals. The track of the low looks favorable & if the timing is right, we could cash in & get on the snow board this week.

Let’s see if the 0z runs tonight continue the positive trends!

The 0z GFS & Canadian like the idea of some snow for most of CTP by later this week.

The GFS & Euro are now bringing another storm up the coast on Thursday & Friday this week. There looks to be more cold air in place at the start so everyone in CTP begins with some frozen precip. The GFS takes a more favorable track for us, while the Euro runs the low just inland. 

Maybe it’s the good old “storm after the storm” that brings the goods to us this week?! 

It was great to see the reports of winter weather yesterday from the north & west areas of CTP !

It looks like those same areas of CTP could cash in again on Monday night & Tuesday.

If the low takes an ideal track & the timing is right, I could see how some of us further south & east could start or end with some flakes mixing in.

I just watched DT’s winter preview video. He has below normal temps for our region throughout the winter. He also has our region at 200% of normal snow for the season! He said this is the first time in his 20 years of doing winter forecasts that he has had our region in 200% of normal snowfall category.  He thinks the pattern is set up to deliver snow to the east right through March.

I would sign up for over 60 inches of snow right now if DT’s forecast delivers!

The best weather news of the day was the latest Euro seasonal forecast that was issued today.

It shows a great winter pattern throughout the season. It features a ridge in the western US & a trough in the east, with signs of an active subtropical jet developing underneath.

4 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Signal is there. Very interesting to say the least.


.

Yes, later this week & next week should bring well below normal temps to most of the eastern half of the country.

The GEFS & EPS at 12z today suggest that we get on the snow board early this year!

I’m dreaming of having this current radar show up again in December!

& January, February & March !