Bingo! Exactly...
Here are the snow maps just for the Thursday event for the 12z GFS, GFS Para & GEFS.
Lots of room to maneuver in any direction.
I like where we are sitting now.
I do indeed... just having some fun and posting model output to get the whole story out there for the snow & temps part of the event on Thursday.
I am good... we are well above normal snow for the date.
I am just not wired to worry...
After all of that, here is 1 snow map to show on the 6z GFS that most of the LSV snow has already occurred by 18z Thursday.
Yes, this map ends at 18z Thursday from the 6z GFS.
I don’t care what happens after this if I have over 7 inches of snow on the ground...
@pasnownut you are looking at 0z Friday which is well after the front end snow thump damage is done Thursday am into afternoon,
Most models do show us mixing Thursday PM
I agree, we should mix, but not until After we get a good snow thump!
@pasnownut
Here are more “non snow maps” just for you!
I present the 6z Euro good sir...
High pressure placement is even better & 850 temps are even colder as the good precip moves in.
This set up looks very good for a front end thump of snow on Thursday even looking at the old GFS.
A large area of High pressure to the north, a moisture laden storm developing well to the south and good 850 temps extending deep into central VA.
@pasnownut the difference is the Arctic air gets to move in by Wednesday after this early week storm to set the stage for better CAD for Thursday.
We have a good amount of room to maneuver. Heck the Para right now is targeting South of the MD line with the best snow.
Right now there is a major model Op & Ensemble consensus for a solid front end thump of snow on Thursday. This is 3 days out, not 3 weeks!
The ensembles are continuing to ramp up snow amounts for Thursday.
Here is the 6z GEFS & 0z EPS .
The trends are getting Better as the event approaches. We are only 3 days out!
The 0z Euro was great with the front end thump of snow for the LSV on Thursday.
This run keeps the LSV as snow until mid afternoon Thursday before the mixing gets underway in the southern tier. Here is the 4pm Thursday panel.
The snow map is nice because it gives us room for a north shift to not hurt too much at this range in terms of snow totals.
The 0z GFS & GFS Para look great for our front end snow thump early Thursday.
I like where the LSV is sitting this run with the old GFS bullseye slightly north & the Para bullseye slightly south.
You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday.
Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching major snow to ice event on Thursday.
Busy week ahead!
The 12z EPS looks good for Thursday. Good area of High pressure to the north leading in to the arrival of moderate to heavy precip. The majority of the low clusters take the storm to the coast by Friday which would help to to keep us mostly in frozen precipitation.