Blizzard of 93

Yesterday was the 17th below normal day of the month so far at MDT. They are currently at -1.4 below normal temperature for the month to date. After today, the rest of the days this month should all be well below normal. I think a below normal November is just about a lock at this point.

Here is what CTP had to say about the Sunday Clipper in their morning discussion. Next feature of note is a fast-moving, digging, wave moving down the western side of the upper trough. It is plenty cold for snow as the moisture associated with it arrives on Sunday. It will likely start to produce some snow over the west early in the day if not late Sat night. Since much of the area will be well below 0C at 8H, much of the precip would be snow. Maybe the SE few counties may have mixed precip or rain, since it is coming thru mainly during the daylight hours. But, QPF is decent - roughly 0.1-0.25" by Sunday evening across a good portion of the CWA. If a low can develop along or just off the coast, it could throw some back into the east Sun night or Monday. However, blended guidance keeps the PoPs kind of low, most likely because of the uncertainty of the speed of the system and if it can develop anything significant before moving off-shore.

The end of the 0z Euro run has this storm as well around the 5th…

The 6z Euro & GFS still like at least a few hours of light snow on Sunday from the Clipper.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I’ll be happy to see a few hours of light snow. Hopefully the ground & car tops get covered. It would be a nice way to start the holiday season.

Here is the 0z Euro.

We are back! Snow tracking season is here!

This is the first time this season that I am looking forward to the NAM this evening!

The 18z GFS brings a light snow event to the LSV on Sunday, and brings a Warning level event to New England.

I would be thrilled with several hours of light snow and getting the first measurable snow on the board for the season in the LSV.

Here is the 6z GFS.

The GFS & Euro are both on board with bringing the first widespread light snow event to most of CTP on Sunday from a Clipper system. Here is the 0z Euro

CTP included this in their discussion this morning. It looks like most La Niñas produced at least near median snow in State College. And then there is the legendary 95-96 .CLIMATE... La Nina looks like it will continue for the winter. Just ran some numbers and found that... Out of the last 41 winter seasons `80-81 thru `20-`21: - 16 have been La Nina during the DJF period (meteorological winter). In these 16 seasons, the State College Co-Op location (PSU`s Walker Building) snowfall has been: - Above normal (GT +1 standard deviation) for only 2 seasons (`83-`84 and `95-`96). 1995-1996 had nearly 100" of snow, - 9 seasons were near normal (median of 38.8" over the 41 seasons), and - 5 were below normal (LT -1 standard deviation).

The 12z Canadian also has the Sunday Clipper.

Here is something that is all good… The 18z Euro Control run has the Sunday Clipper. We are 5 days away. This is something to track.

Great! I got to see a few rounds of flurries today between Hazleton & Wilkes-Barre.

The 0z Euro & Canadian both have a little light snow for us Sunday & Monday.

How about we run the table just like 93-94 or 95-96 or 02-03 ?

I would certainly take a light event to get on the board or just see first snow flakes of the season here in the LSV.

Well done! I was just recently thinking that it is almost time for one of your “Day in the Life” of the Central PA forum with the setting being on the day before a Winter storm hitting us.

The 18z GFS also had this storm approaching at the end of the run. Only 384 hours away…,

Yes, it was a good fantasyland GFS 18z run!

Another below normal day in the books yesterday at MDT. This was the 13th below normal day of the month so far. MDT is currently at a -1 temperature departure for the month. With the current forecast, I think there is a good chance of finishing below normal for the month.

The pattern looks decent for week 2 as we end November & begin December. The ridge is out west and the trough is in the east. There is still decent blocking up north as well. We need to get the troughing out of Alaska to not interfere with our cold air source. Here is the 0z EPS( Euro ensemble) & 0z GEPS(Canadian ensemble).