Blizzard of 93

Phase 7 is good in late December and January in a La Niña.

Seasonal temps here this week right near average in the low to mid 40s.

I like the MU call. The majority of even our decent Winters are built on these types of storms. We usually have at least a few changeover or mixed bag storms every year. Most of time we are adding up 2.8 +1.9 + 3.6 etc. of snow to get to our yearly total amounts. Storms that bring a widespread snow of 6+ or 12+ are rare. We just had 2 double digit storms last year, so odds are against it this year. I am ready to enjoy a a Winter storm in whatever way we can get it!

Temps are definitely stepped down this week from last week’s 50s & 60s. Here is my point & click for the next 5 days… The colder pattern change is underway…very seasonal average temps here… This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Monday Sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 26. South wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 44. Light and variable wind. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Here are the Euro and Canadian ensembles for day 13 (not day 15…). The good looks are not moving backwards in time. These show the trough in the east and good blocking up top. Ridging is moving in the right direction off of the west coast. We should be in business towards the end of the month and early in the New Year.

@paweather Maybe this will hold you over until 12z today. The 6z GFS has a little snow for us next Tuesday.

I would recommend to some of you take a look around at the different regional forums on here. Many of the long time quality respected and knowledgeable posters are very optimistic at the progression and look of the ensembles from week 2 onward.

We are stepping down. It snowed in New England yesterday and there was freezing precip in northern PA yesterday.

It’s a roller coaster until next week

All of the good signals are on all of the ensembles starting next week.

The ensembles all look great in week 2

The 12z Euro & Canadian ensembles still show the trough extending coast to coast. West based -NAO looks impressive for ensemble runs at 2 week range. We are still heading in a good direction for Winter weather chances.

I also like seeing the massive 1050+ Highs that are showing up in Canada & the northern US.

Then the 12z GFS had another Winter weather chance just after NewYear’s. Yes, I know….Op run at long range…. But it’s certainly possible with the pattern change that’s underway.

The 12z GFS showed a couple of Winter weather opportunities before New Year’s.

The main reason for the last 2 years is because of no March or April snow. The non-Winter of 19-20 had historically low snow the whole season. Last year we had snow in Dec., Jan. & Feb., but nothing in March- but above normal total for the whole season. In recent history, we had good March snow in 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019, so I’m not concerned about last 2 years not producing March snow, which really skews that chart that you posted. It’s interesting and thanks for posting it, but I don’t think we can draw any conclusions.

The best part is that the Euro & Canadian ensembles both agree with the GEFS with the pattern look for New Year’s weekend.

Here are 2 snapshots of the 6z GEFS showing the pattern progression over the next 2 weeks. Here is the look on Christmas and then the look on day 16 just after New Year’s weekend. If this happens as depicted, we lose the southeast ridge and see the trough extend to the east. The west based -NAO blocking up top looks very good as well. This could be a very good period for us as we head towards New Year’s weekend.

Unfortunately yes, but still time to go. We might need to keep waiting. The ensembles still look great in week 2 and beyond with blocking and the trough out West beginning to slowly get on the move.

Lol, thanks. Storms that bring a widespread 1 to 2 feet of snow in PA are rare. We historically get maybe get 1 of those type of storms every 5 years or so on average. We had 2 of these storms last year. This fact made it a good Winter in my book.

Here are just a few big picture thoughts on Winter, when just comparing to last year. Last year we had 1 really good Winter storm on December 16th that brought near 1 foot of snow in the Harrisburg area and near 2 feet in northern PA. We didn’t have any snow before the 12/16 storm and then nothing more than a car topper in January until the very last day of the month. We then had our second big storm on 1/31 into 2/1 that brought another 1 foot of snow to many in the LSV, while northeast PA got closer to 20 inches. The pattern last year looked great at times, but December we cashed in on 1 great storm. The pattern last January looked good as well, but no storms got their act together until the end on the month when we cashed in with our 2nd good storm. Then in February we had 3 or 4 more Advisory level events that combined to give our last foot of snow. Then in March, there was nothing again. Last year the snow all added up to 36 inches, which is 5 inches above normal at MDT. 2 good storms gave us 67% of our seasonal snow last season. My point is, we just need to be patient. We will have our chances. Hopefully we have a sustained run with several chances? Maybe we just get 1 or 2 good storms? Every Winter is different in how we get our snow. Let’s see how it plays out this year.

Yes, I was just thinking about this as well. Hopefully the turn towards more wet will time out well with peak climo in January and February.

The models have backed off of the good looks for some minor winter events that some runs were showing over the last day or two for the time period right around and just beyond Christmas. The ensembles look to be heading towards a much more favorable pattern for us in week 2 and rolling into the early New Year.

It’s good to see Advisories & Warnings from northern PA up through New England for tomorrow. Our time is coming soon. The pattern change is just beginning.