Blizzard of 93

The 12z Canadian showed snow and mixed precip for a good chuck of central & eastern PA early on Christmas.

The 0z Canadian had a colder look for next week and showed some snow potential for next Wednesday.

Good points again. Indeed I have no rules as to when I get my snow. I do understand and appreciate those that have preferences as to when they get their snow. In our region, we can’t expect continuous snowy patterns from December through March. I just hope that we capitalize when when we do have good periods.

Great point. This why, in terms of weather, I posted a couple of reminders of how long we had to wait for snow even in very good or great Winters.

I was recently thinking of our “good” Winters. There is usually a lot of waiting and down time between good periods even in the good Winters. How about the Winter of 14-15? We had a snowstorm right before Thanksgiving. Then we had almost nothing until around January 20th. The good pattern then locked in from late January until mid-March. We ended up about 10 inches of snow above normal for the season. Patience was rewarded that year.

Thanks, #nevergiveup

Lol…Hey now…I made no punting mention recently… Team snow!

Was the 09-10 Winter a bad Winter in CTP? We only had 4 events…. It was one of the best Winter’s over the last few decades. We had 1 good storm around December 20th that brought around 10 inches of snow. Then we had almost nothing until the blockbuster February week of 2 great storms around the 5th & 10th. Then back here we got a glancing blow later in February from the “snowicane” that gave Harrisburg around 6 inches of snow. Of course No one is expecting a repeat of that year. My point is that we have plenty of time to score at least 4 good Winter events. Patience is a difficult thing to manage…

Patience is needed. We are still in good shape heading into early January.

Phase 7 is good in late December and January in a La Niña.

Seasonal temps here this week right near average in the low to mid 40s.

I like the MU call. The majority of even our decent Winters are built on these types of storms. We usually have at least a few changeover or mixed bag storms every year. Most of time we are adding up 2.8 +1.9 + 3.6 etc. of snow to get to our yearly total amounts. Storms that bring a widespread snow of 6+ or 12+ are rare. We just had 2 double digit storms last year, so odds are against it this year. I am ready to enjoy a a Winter storm in whatever way we can get it!

Temps are definitely stepped down this week from last week’s 50s & 60s. Here is my point & click for the next 5 days… The colder pattern change is underway…very seasonal average temps here… This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Monday Sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 26. South wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 44. Light and variable wind. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Here are the Euro and Canadian ensembles for day 13 (not day 15…). The good looks are not moving backwards in time. These show the trough in the east and good blocking up top. Ridging is moving in the right direction off of the west coast. We should be in business towards the end of the month and early in the New Year.

@paweather Maybe this will hold you over until 12z today. The 6z GFS has a little snow for us next Tuesday.

I would recommend to some of you take a look around at the different regional forums on here. Many of the long time quality respected and knowledgeable posters are very optimistic at the progression and look of the ensembles from week 2 onward.

We are stepping down. It snowed in New England yesterday and there was freezing precip in northern PA yesterday.

It’s a roller coaster until next week

All of the good signals are on all of the ensembles starting next week.

The ensembles all look great in week 2

The 12z Euro & Canadian ensembles still show the trough extending coast to coast. West based -NAO looks impressive for ensemble runs at 2 week range. We are still heading in a good direction for Winter weather chances.

I also like seeing the massive 1050+ Highs that are showing up in Canada & the northern US.

Then the 12z GFS had another Winter weather chance just after NewYear’s. Yes, I know….Op run at long range…. But it’s certainly possible with the pattern change that’s underway.

The 12z GFS showed a couple of Winter weather opportunities before New Year’s.