Blizzard of 93

The pattern for next week & beyond looks very interesting to say the least. We are going to be very busy in here with tracking & more tracking!

Here is the 0z HRRR precip & snow. This is only 10:1 ratio, and I don’t have Kuchera for this model. With 15:1 ratio, some places in the LSV would get over 5 inches of snow if this run verified!

The 0z HRRR is juiced up!

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 PAZ036-056-063-061230- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.220106T2200Z-220107T0900Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, and Carlisle 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry and Cumberland Counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will not start to accumulate until after sunset and will end in the middle of the night.

Speaking of ALEET… Here is DT’s call

ALEET…ALEET…the rest of the LSV is now in the Advisory! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 PAZ057-059-061230- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.220107T0000Z-220107T1100Z/ Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 728 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Dauphin and Lebanon Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will not start to accumulate until late evening and will end before sunrise.

This looks right as well with the Rouzerville & Cashtown jackpot!

Here is another zoomed in CTP view of the 18z Euro. Sign me up!

No one posted the SREF? The day shift on here is slipping….Lol

CTP put this out today.

Things are getting real when you see the RAP posted!

6z RGEM was nice & tucked near the coast. It this track verified, we would probably see even more upside than depicted on this snow map.

@paweather The 3k NAM should cheer you up (maybe for a few minutes…!)

6z ICON looks decent. I only have this at 10:1, so Kuchera would be slightly higher amounts.

6z GFS

This a a cold storm & it’s January, where our typical ratio is 12 to 13 to 1, so Kuchera ratio should be best for this storm instead of the 10:1 maps.

0z Euro wasn’t too bad for the LSV.

Slight move in the right direction on 0z GFS compared to 18z

Oh Canada…. 0z RGEM says get the plow out!

Double Happy Hour?

The 0z NAM is a LSV special.

Great analysis! The 18z EPS also had some uptick in snow amounts for the LSV over the 12z EPS. 18z top vs. 12z bottom

The great storms are sniffed out early… Classic look on that panel for 1/16. Decent 24 hour precip showing as well for that day.

Here is the best 18z Euro panel for the LSV.

There is a chance at more upside. The Euro can’t decide where to place the low when it hits the coast. You can see the 3 tiny “circles” off of the coast of VA. If the low consolidates and ends up towards the inner circle, this storm could deliver more goods.