Blizzard of 93

Here is the combined 2 event snow by Monday morning on the 6z GFS.

The 6z GFS storm still has the Sunday storm chance as well. This run still has snow to mix for the LSV.

The 6z GFS held serve for Thursday night into Friday with the switch to freezing rain, sleet & snow.

Here is the 2 event Combined total on the 0z GFS through next Monday am.

Here is snow for Sunday’s event only.

Here is another look at the 0z GFS for this Sunday night. It has Warning level snow to mix for the LSV.

Here is the 0z GFS precip type broken down into snow, sleet & freezing rain by the end of Friday.

Here are some to me stamps for our region from the 0z GFS for Thursday night into Friday showing the transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow.

CTP had this posted today. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 826 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-011330- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 826 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Accumulating snow and icy mix could result in hazardous travel conditions Wednesday night through Friday.

Here is the 2 event combined snow by Monday am per the 18z GFS.

The 18z GFS had the follow up storm Sunday night into Monday that delivers a few more inches of snow in the LSV.

The 18z Euro at the end of the 90 hour run ticked very slightly in the right direction for Friday. 12z top vs. 18z bottom

At this point, the GFS has been doing very well this Winter on most storms. The Euro & Ukie both have had 18z like solutions over the last couple of days. Hopefully we get some consensus by tomorrow.

Great post! I was just getting ready to post about it. I’ll see if I can add anything to your thoughts soon. Looks great & hopefully it gets more support at 0z tonight. This one be a very interesting & long duration event if it went like this run.

6z GFS snow vs. 0z GFS

Huge move south by the 6z GFS for Friday.

Great post and good questions. This has been a frustrating month, but it has been full of near miss opportunities. There has been Lots of tracking but little ROI so far. The inland track coastal storm a couple of weeks ago could have produced more with a better track. 2 storms missed to our south that VA & NC cashed in on. A couple of Clippers that western & northern PA got 3 or 4 inches last week could have dropped 1 or 2 inches in the LSV with a slightly better track. Then, of course this weekend’s storm could have produced a much better even glancing hit or a flush hit if we had a better track with a little blocking. I would rather track and have the frustration of missing out instead of experiencing a shut out pattern where no one scores. Onward to February & March…. Hopefully it will be the LSV’s time to win!

This Winter so far could easily be well above normal for the LSV. This month we have seen storms just miss us in every direction. MDT is only around 3 inches below normal snow for season to date. We will get our snow in February & March to get at least to normal for the season.

Do you want me to post all of the threats on the 18z GFS?

Even if the late week threat doesn’t pan out for us, the 18z GFS had several more chances for us every few days over the next 2 weeks.

I’m going to hug the model with the most snow according to my handbook! This usually works, right… lol…

This would be potentially be a wave riding up a front. Timing would need to be just right, but the ingredients are there.

Unfortunately the Euro took a step back at 12z for CTP. The Highs are still in a good position. It will come down to the push of cold air and the strength and timing of the wave. Lots of time to resolve.

12z UKMET is still a hit as well for Friday… @losetoa6 do you have a PA centered map for the Ukie? I saw this map posted by our friends to the south. In Most of our CTP events, we score better snow when I-95 is mixing…

12z Canadian improved wintry chances for Friday too… 12z top vs. 0z bottom