Blizzard of 93

The 18z GFS has mostly sleet & freezing rain for the southern half of PA. This would be ugly if this played out.

This is a different situation than the last event. We have cold air in place as the precip arrives this time. Also, we are 4 days out, lots of times to see how this plays out.

The snow map is only for the next Sunday snow chance on the 12z Euro.

Here are some more photos of the 12z Euro for the next Sunday snow chance.

I won’t mind Friday if it ends up as a mostly icy mix as long as we are tracking a Moderate snowstorm for next Sunday as the 12z Euro shows for us.

Here is the 12z Euro freezing rain for Friday.

The 12z Euro has a significant ice event for most of us from around the PA turnpike on north.

We had a Warning event in early January when MDT got over 5 inches of snow. CTP upgraded us to a Warning in the middle of the event.

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning for the late week Winter storm. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A brief period of fair and cooler conditions appears likely Wednesday PM through much of Thursday, as high pressure noses southward from the Grt Lks, returning temps close to average for late February. All guidance tracks another area of low pressure north from the Gulf Coast late next week. There is significant spread in the forecast track of this system, but the bulk of current guidance tracks a primary low west of Pa with secondary coastal development and a blocking high over New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early Friday.

Here is the 12z GFS for Thursday night through Friday snow, sleet & freezing rain.

My overnight low in Marysville was 14

Here is the 6z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

I agree that the High strength & placement looks very good with this Thursday night & Friday event. The model runs that have brought the good snow further south in PA show a weaker & further south 1st wave earlier on Thursday. This allows the Cold fresh High to entrench further south and keeps the boundary closer to the MD line. This then produces for southern PA more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain with the main second wave overnight Thursday through Friday.

Here is another view of the 18z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

GFS is not wavering!

Here is 1 more Euro comparison. The 12z -top- has a weaker low that is not even worthy of an “L” on the map in western PA with more freezing rain further to the south than the 0z -bottom- which has a stronger low near Buffalo, NY at the same time stamp. Hopefully this is the beginning of its trend towards the GFS.

Here are some comparisons of the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro. The 12z Euro has the first wave weaker and further south than the 0z Euro. This allows time for colder air to build south, more similar to the GFS solution. 12z Euro top, 0z Euro middle, 12z GFS bottom.

Just where we want it at this range…hopefully….maybe? Imagine if the GFS is right for Friday and then the day 10 storm trends a little north? We could get caught up & then some in the snow department this season. At least we are back in the game!

The Euro made a move towards the GFS. @MJO812 I saw your post in here NYC thread and I agree that the Euro took a step towards the GFS (I didn’t want to get involved in the shenanigans on there…). I’ll try to post some maps soon to compare. Long way to go…

It was a great GFS run for snow for the turnpike area on north. The 12z Canadian was mostly ice for CTP. Lets see if the Euro makes a move soon?

Same here, much lighter snow now. I picked up a quick few tenths of an inch of snow mostly on the grass. Car tops & roads quickly melted as the rates dropped off.

Temp down to 30 now with all surfaces now snow covered with heavy snow currently in Marysville!

Heavy snow in Marysville with 26 mph wind gust and temp dropped 6 degrees in the last 30 minutes.

The squall line looks like it held together as it crossed the Alps…I mean the Appalachians.

Yes, it is now approaching the Susquehanna Valley. Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS STATE COLLEGE PA 1200 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 PAC009-037-041-043-055-057-067-093-097-099-107-109-191815- /O.NEW.KCTP.SQ.W.0008.220219T1700Z-220219T1815Z/ 1200 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 Bedford County-Columbia County-Cumberland County-Dauphin County-Franklin County-Fulton County-Juniata County-Montour County-Northumberland County-Perry County-Schuylkill County-Snyder County- The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Southern Bedford County in south central Pennsylvania... Central Schuylkill County in central Pennsylvania... Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania... Northern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania... Franklin County in south central Pennsylvania... Fulton County in south central Pennsylvania... Central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Snyder County in central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Montour County in central Pennsylvania... Columbia County in central Pennsylvania... Cumberland County in south central Pennsylvania... Perry County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 115 PM EST. * At 1158 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from Central to Kreamer to near Blacklog to Everett to Berlin, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 35 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.