Blizzard of 93

“Leaning Below” according to their key. 40 to 50% chance of below… so I guess that means around 50% chance of Above or Normal?

Thanks, sometimes I really wonder what some people are look at! We should have at least some chances in the first week of January.

I’m pretty sure that I’ll stick with the 3 major ensembles that have these looks for their 7 day means for the first week of January. They have been very consistent in showing these looks for quite some time. We should have chances for Winter weather if these looks continue to hold.

I’m pretty sure that I’ll stick with the 3 major ensembles that have these looks for their 7 day means for the first week of January. They have been very consistent in showing these looks for quite some time. We should have chances for Winter weather if these looks continue to hold.

@Atomixwx Sorry that I lost my cool this morning. I am generally entertained by your posts. I hope that you & your family have great holidays.

It’s Christmas! I’m done fighting, but I finally needed to stand up for myself…. Hopefully we get a solid Winter storm threat to emerge as the holiday period progresses.

Good points on ensembles, however they are the much better long range tool than a single Op run, especially 1 or 2 weeks out. To your point, ensembles often have different camps that might skew the reality of the outcome. The EPS has 50 ensemble members, so for example, you might have 25 cold & 25 warm, which could disguise the true eventual reality. However, once you get a good majority of members that agree, then you can see the likely direction of the pattern.

Blizzard of 93 annual Disclaimer: Whenever I post a model run map it is merely just showing the model output. I do NOT draw the maps! In no way, shape or form does it mean that I “wish” for it to happen. I am just posting what the map shows, with a little discussion. Most of us are here for snow, so just for occasional fun, a long range Op run map will be posted to give the crowd what they want to see! Again, just because a map is posted does not mean that I necessarily believe it or am trying to wish it into existence. I love snow & I will always look for the possibility of tracking snow from the long range weather pattern to the short term advisories & Warnings.

I have been posting the longer range pattern change on the ensembles that have consistently shown a much better looking pattern developing by early January. There are no changes with the better looks as we roll into January. The 3 main ensembles all look cold or cold enough for snow chances for the first week of January.

This place is losing me quickly… Have a great day everyone….(except one).

@Atomixwx I am still waiting for your first quality post….

Get a life dude! Not sure what your last post even means.

I post maps from model runs to discuss. I am not saying everyday “Golly gee, I wish it would snow someday”!

Waking up in the middle of the night to post is reserved for when a snow threat gets to within a few days out.

Why don’t you ever post anything worthwhile that adds anything of value to this place?!?! I hope you enjoy being the resident no talent ass clown in here!!!

I post occasional long range snow just for fun. most of us are here for snow

Really….I am really sick & tired of you coming after me!!!

If we want to talk long range global Op models, the 3 main globals are all cold at day 10 for New Year’s Eve.

Lol…because one GFS Op at day 16 is to be taken seriously…? Come on now…

18z GEFS looks loaded with potential for that first week of January.

Best GEFS run of the year. @mitchnick has been waiting for this. Good to see the 2 inch line down to Richmond.

Good to see the Op recognizing the upcoming pattern in early January.

Lots of ups & downs with seasonal snowfall over the decades in Harrisburg. Recent seasonal snowfall history since 2010 shows that Harrisburg has had 7 seasons with above normal snow & 7 seasons with below normal snow.

The 12z Euro control has a low near VA beach the night of January 3rd.

26 in Marysville