Blizzard of 93

I see a pattern of chances once to early January. It’s not a KU look at this time, but more of an Advisory to lower end Warning type of look. This is again not a KU look, but far far far from a shut out look as well. I’m thinking we see good old type of 2-4, 3-6 inch snow events as the GFS Op has been showing off & on for that first week or so of January.

Here is something that I mention every year that I use just as a simple indicator tool to let me know the potential for snow in a given window of time. All 3 ensemble snow maps finally are getting the “blue” to DC or northern VA. The GEFS & GEPS the last 2 days have really extended the blue well south. The EPS finally joined them at 0z. Again, this to me is just an indicator especially when we are entering what should be a favorable period. There are no guarantees, but it’s good to see the ensemble snow maps responding to the favorable look of the upcoming pattern. Bottom line, we should have our chances, as some of the Ops have been showing off & on the last few days for the first week of January. Here are the latest 15/16 day snow maps for the EPS, GEFS & GEPS.

I know what you mean, disclaimers should not be needed, especially for those of us that have been doing this for a long time. Ops, ensembles, teleconnections, analogs, etc. all have their value & they contribute to trying to figure out the upcoming story of how our weather will unfold.

Thanks & that last paragraph is great! I just had to put my annual disclaimer out a few days ago on here! Happy Christmas Eve!

0z GFS has a January 4th Winter Storm chance.

The 18z GEFS still looks good as well for the first week of January.

Lol, it’s also Saturday night & the day before Christmas Eve…some people might be kind of busy.

Thanks & the Euro Op is trying for that 28/29th period as well for a possible light event.

The GFS even has the chance of snow in Western & Northern CTP on the 28th.

I just got back from some pre Christmas errands and got to look at the GFS. My goodness it is full of potential for the first week of January.

It’s a shame that this week a couple of good posters that have over 30,000 combined posts on here over the years have been attacked. The internet is really going downhill faster than ever…. I just don’t get it anymore…

Exactly, highs in the teens here with freezes to the Gulf Coast often means suppressed storms. Give me “cold enough” all day.

6z GFS looks cold enough for snow from NYE onward with a few storms that miss to our southeast this run. I’d much rather see this than seeing storms heading for the Great Lakes. Again, we should have our chances.

Great posts this morning (as usual) by @CAPE in the Mid Atlantic thread on the good looks the the ensembles are showing for the first week of January. We should have chances…

Exactly, no changes. All 3 of the ensembles continue to look good & nothing is getting pushed back in time.

Yes, the 18z GEFS looks very nice. If this verifies, many a snow fan would be happy by the end of the first week of January.

Lol, if you mean showing the map… @mitchnick just beat me to it.

Who wants to see the Happy Hour GFS snow map? I am not posting unless someone really wants to see it…

Your 540 line actually stretches coast to coast from west to east almost into Florida this run at day 16.

Seeing how it’s happy hour & we apparently are safe to be posting 300 hour Op run GFS maps… Just for fun …. Not my forecast or wish… the 18z GFS ends with another round of snow on day 15. Quite the first week of January if it plays out this way…

The pattern supports chances….

Just like in sports, they say “winning cures everything”. On here, “snow cures everything”. Our time hopefully is coming in early January.

Again, like I said in my disclaimer this morning… it’s not me… it’s what the models show. We are not staring at some huge ridge covering the the eastern US. The upcoming pattern supports at least chances. Let’s hope for the best.

The 12z ensembles are not dry for the 7 day period for the first week of January. If southern PA gets around .5 of precip & most of it is snow, I don’t think many would complain if we ended up near 5 inches of snow on the ground. I also like seeing the heavy precip in the Gulf coast states just waiting to be tapped.