Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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I like the look of that precip shield at the end of the run.
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I’ve been refreshing the RGEM so I can extrapolate it beyond 84 hours!
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Lol, I’m looking forward to what the HRDPS has to say on Friday!
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I just watched ABC-27 Eric Finkenbinder’s forecast from this Evening & he said they are thinking around 6 inches of snow at this time, but need to monitor the next few days.
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Harrisburg gets an extra inch on the 18z Control. I’ll take it!
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Lol, I’ll ride with the 18z Euro Control
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I know he is a great Met, but I don’t agree if he is saying the pattern hasn’t changed this week from the pattern that we had around Christmas. If he is just saying the models from yesterday that showed some major foot plus amounts do not fit the pattern, then I’ll agree with that point. Like CTP said, a plowable snow is increasing in potential.
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CTP is talking dirty. “There is increasing potential for a plowable to potentially heavy snowfall across parts of Central PA Saturday into Sunday. Another winter storm could impact the area during the first half of next week.”
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Good points & I think we will see somewhat of a juicing back up during the final 48 hours prior to the event.
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Also, the pattern has changed & this potential event fits the new pattern. ”Expectations in check” likely means don’t expect a foot like some Ops showed yesterday. A Warning level event is certainly on the table, but average amounts will probably be closer to 6 instead of 12 at this time, so my expectations are certainly in check, Lol!
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@canderson CTP seems confident with 4 days to go. This is for Harrisburg
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Thanks, lol, Im sure it’s canceled & it will be a rain storm now! Get a grip!
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CTP posted this earlier today.
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We have a long way to go to pin down the details with timing, amounts & final track. Just wait until we can add in the NAM, RGEM & HRRR to all of this…!
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The Canadian actually keeps the foot in play for many. Maybe it will be right for a change?
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We are in a great spot for this event. With the low tracking off of the DelMarVa, we should be able to score a Warning level event.
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Today, the Ops & ensembles still show Warning level snow for most of CTP. The high end foot plus amounts have now been reduced, but are still showing a Warning level event for most. This is mainly due to the speed of the Storm & reduced precipitation amounts. Most of the Op runs have still have Harrisburg near 8 inches of snow, which would be a fantastic way to get our Winter going! Here is a recap of the 12z & 18z Global Ops today.
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You rang? Lol…
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Low is in a great spot, just need to slow it down a bit & ramp the precip back up. 4 days to go, but I would be good with a region wide 5 to 10 of snow.
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Checking in over lunch, the Weatherbell maps look much different for the LSV in a good way on the GFS & Canadian.
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If you want to treat yourself, go take a look at the 6z GFS total snow map through day 16….
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Out in fantasy land, the 6z GFS has another Winter storm chance on the 15th. Storms & rumors of storms..buckle up!
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Looking ahead to the Tuesday the 9th storm, the chance of front end snow is back on the 6z GFS even into the LSV before the change to rain. Heavy front end snow this run for western & northern CTP with the 9th event on the GFS. The snow map is just for the 24 hrs on the 9th into 10th.
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6z GEFS continues to ramp up.
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6z ICON bumped north to put us in the sweet spot. Still a little more snow to go at the end of the run which ends at 120 hours.
