Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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Long way to go, but I would gladly sign now!
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What a beautiful 0z GFS run! Great hour for you & @paweather with your football team winning & this GFS run.
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Let’s go! Please post more info…I’m at Red Robin with the family & just snuck into the bathroom to check the 18z GFS. Mrs. Blizz & the kids would get upset if I interrupted dinner to look up maps!
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The 12z EPS is very interesting for the 7th. We are in the game & have a specific chance to track. That’s all we can ask for with 7 days to go.
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming
Blizzard of 93 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The 12z EPS is very interesting. We are in the game & have a specific chance to track. That’s all we can ask for with 7 days to go. -
The 12z GFS for the 7th chance gets some light snow into southern PA this run, but brings good snow to MD & VA. This run the storm hits a wall off of the coast of VA beach. It would not take much to get at least southern PA into the good stuff with a few changes. 1 week to go, so we have time to watch & wait…
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12z GFS & Canadian both get some light snow to most of PA on the 4th mostly from a northern branch feature. The coastal is too far east at this time.
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The 6z GFS was close, as @Bubbler86 mentioned. If the storm doesn’t hit the wall, we could be in business on the 7th. That look with the low in Georgia, high in Quebec, with good precip back into Tennessee & Kentucky is generally something that works well at least for southern PA. We still have time for a a few small changes to make this work.
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January 7th is very much in play on the GFS & Canadian at 0z. The Canadian gets a good event to MD & southern PA this run. The GFS wasn’t far off from something more this run.
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0z GFS is wide right for the 4th.
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The 0z Canadian gets us into the game on the 4th.
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Lol, I don’t think that’s what he meant, but If so… I’m sure he’ll be back at 0z if It looks decent!
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The chance on the 7th is still on the table this run. The low has a ton of moisture available in the Gulf & more cold air is also available this run. The low slides off of the Carolina coast this run. Long way to go for this one, but we are still in the game.
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18z GFS is out of sync with the 4th storm & has a low passing to our north & south this run.
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We are in the game with 2 trackable events in the next 9 days that are now in Op run range for all models.
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We are in a better spot in CTP for the storm chances next week than our I-95 friends to our south & east. We could still fail on both chances, but being in the interior back in PA could help us is this situation with marginal cold air if one of these tracks right.
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The 12z GFS certainly keeps CTP in the game for January 7th.
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The 12z runs also keep us in the game for January 7th. The Canadian has a High in a great spot, but then squashes the low to our south east out to sea.
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The January 4th chance is still there on the GFS & Canadian at 12z. The GFS was too far southeast with the low The Canadian gets some snow to most of CTP.
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I’m happy to see we have 2 chances next week on the Op runs to track. They might not work out for us, but I’m just happy to be back in the short to medium range game.
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This is typical El Niño most of the time. Warm & little snow in December. The pattern flip is currently underway. The storms & rumors of Winter storms should make this place a lot of fun in January & February.
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The 0z GFS way out in fantasyland also ends with another Winter storm chance at the end its run on January 13th. It’s good to see an active pattern with some cold air around. We will probably lose some, by the potential is there to win some as well if things go our way.
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The January 7th chance on the models also got a lot more interesting overnight. The 6z GFS really put us in the game this run, but temps are marginal as depicted. The 0z Canadian & Euro are colder & further southeast at this time. The Euro was not far off of being a good run for us. Long way to go, but it’s good to be back in the game.
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The old line from my handbook says, “the blend could be your friend” for the 4th.
