superjames1992

I thought this was an arctic sea ice thread?

This storm is looking to ruin my trip to Scarowinds Saturday night. In other news, my old stomping lands of Tallahassee, FL look to get yet another tropical system (granges, this one is weak).

Hehe, the good news is we can still score. Last year was a torching winter, but this area and yours still ended up well above normal snowfall because of one big snowstorm. It just takes one. Likewise, we can have a cold winter and get unlucky and end up not getting much snow, too.

Winter cancel.

Accuweather predicts a snowy winter for the Northeast. Shocking! But a winter storm "could" hit some N/W areas of the Southeast. No, at least one wintry event of some sort is basically guaranteed in these parts (even if it's small), so it's not much of a "could", IMO.

Thankfully, as opposed to where I lived in Greensboro, I now live north of I-40. Unfortunately, i now live S/E of I-85. Game over! Winter cancel!!! I wish I was here for last year's one-footer. I haven't seen snow in a long while...

Helena, MT is forecasted to get 8-12" in a few days and the Marias Pass is forecasted 36-50". Not bad.

Despite this, I would say winters over the last 10 years or so have been much improved over the winters of the 2000s decade. I think Greensboro, at least, may be above the 1981-2010 average snowfall average despite the sizzling temperatures. Of course, it only take some storm around here. For example, Greensboro finished 50% above average in snowfall last year because of one storm, despite the rest of the winter being irredeemably terrible (aside from the surprise snowfall in April). I am looking forward to this winter after having lived in Florida the last three winters...

I think he posts under the username Brick Tamland.

Congratulations. We’ve got a budding weather savant.

To follow up on this, they did survive. Their house, however, did not, to say the least. Just saw a photo of it and there’s hardly anything left.

Beautiful weather this weekend.

It’s definitely important to remember a Florida landfall is well within range of a “typical forecast error” 48 hours out.

Hurricane intensity forecasts are always a crapshoot, though. Michael wasn’t supposed to get nearly as strong as it did right before landfall in the FL panhandle last year, either.

I have some extended stepfamily who lives in Man-O-War near Marsh Harbor in The Bahamas and decided not to evacuate. WTF??? Hope they survive...

I have some extended stepfamily who lives in Man-O-War near Marsh Harbor in The Bahamas and decided not to evacuate. WTF??? Hope they survive...

12z ICON is a Miami hit. Is that model worthless for tropical weather? Odd to see.

To illustrate this:

The 00z GFS appears to be keeping it pretty far offshore of FL. I’m not sure it’s going to make landfall anywhere on the 00z. EDIT: Looks like it might try to make landfall northeast of KCHS, actually.

Up to 140 mph as of 11 pm now. And the center of the new NHC cone doesn’t even make landfall in FL as the cone shifts east. Looks strangely Matthew-like.

Yes, but it was basically a guarantee that any year is going to be a top 5-10 melt season given the long-term trend. That’s what I mean by “new normal”.

Pretty crazy turnaround considering how bad things looked a few weeks back. I mean, historically the minimum is still going to be low, but we're not going to even come close to 2012 and it looks like it's not going to be too far out of the ordinary for our "new normal" in the arctic.

It does a Hurricane Matthew or something?

I guess the good news about a quicker turn right is that the Florida panhandle will likely be spared another hit after Michael last year. It was looking like it could still be pretty strong well inland or even enter into the Gulf at one point.

I think it was this one, actually?