superjames1992

Looks like another winter storm I'm going to miss. There's been some good ones for GSO since I moved away. Looks like there's a chance this could be a real mauler there, although I suspect it will end up being some snow with a pingerfest for most of it. We'll see. Seems to be the way these things go, but 3-6" and a ton of sleet is still a big deal. The northern mountains look really nice... Looks like there's a lot of moisture, so places that do stay mostly snow should get a lot. But WAA! CONVECTIVE BANDING! ETC! Looks like just a lot or rain here. Not even a particularly cold rain.

Damn. This is going to be one of the strongest storms on record to hit the United States.

Yeah, but Florence had weakened quite a bit from that by landfall, in any case. This thing looks like it's still spooling up (A la Charley?).

140 MPH as of the latest update. Wow. That's a good 15 MPH higher than I remember seeing forecasted yesterday.

We've got a Cat 4 as of the latest update. 130 MPH.

Looking pretty strong this morning. Looks like it might strengthen some more, too. I’m curious if it might sneak up to Cat 4 by landfall. This looks to be a historic storm. I don’t believe a storm of this caliber has hit this part of the panhandle in many decades, maybe longer. That will be three hurricanes/strong tropical storms since I’ve moved to Tallahassee. For a place that I was under the impression didn’t get many hurricanes (and it had been over 30 years sincerely one hit before Hermine in 2016), they sure seem to be pretty common all of the sudden.

Looking pretty beastly now. Up to 120 MPH. It does look like the worst should pass west of Tallahassee, though things look very bad for places like Panama City, St. George Island, etc. I’m glad my apartment is on the NE side of town. Hopefully nothing too bad happens there. I will be in Normandy tomorrow.

Looks like I picked a good week to be on vacation in France! Looks potentially very bad for Tallahassee, though! A lot stronger than Hermine, though at least Hermine already knocked down a lot of the weaker trees. It does look like the more recent modeling takes the worst impacts west of Tallahassee, though there’s obviously plenty of time for that to change, for better or worse.

That's an increase from 100 MPH at 5 PM, correct?

The 11 AM advisory has Florence down to 105 MPH maximum sustained winds, though the pressure also dropped slightly.

The 00z GFS looks like a monster rainmaker for NC. Looks like 12”+ from roughly the Triad eastward. A step up from 18z and a huge step up from prior runs before 18z yesterday, especially for central NC.

Yeah, I remember just yesterday the NHC was forecasting this thing to ramp up to 140-155 MPH leading up to landfall (though weakening as it got closer to the coast), so it’s definitely a lot weaker than expected, at least as far as maximum sustained winds go. As it is, it’s down to category 2 and they aren’t forecasting it to make it back to a major hurricane now. Of course, they could just as easily be wrong and underdo the winds now, but we usually tend to see storms weaken as they close in on the coast, not strengthen.

From speaking with family/friends, it sounds like it’s prepmaggeddon up there in the Triad, and if the southward trend continues it’s going to be all for naught, most likely (not that it likely would have been worse than tropical storm force winds in the worst case scenario, anyways). If such winds do develop, I’d expect tree damage and power outages, but hopefully the ice storms a few years ago already took down a lot of the “low hanging fruit”. It seemed that flooding was the biggest threat there, but I would imagine a further south track will limit that.

Certainly, and that’s well within the NHC cone. Pretty sizable shift on the track tonight, and one that would probably spare Raleigh to some extent, I would expect. It will be interesting to see how/if the still develops. It almost seems too wonky to be legitimate on some of the models, but we’ve seen similar things before (I.e. Harvey).

Stay safe, everyone! Especially those of you out east!

I'm going to be in Greensboro this weekend. The clipper, even though it'll probably end in heartbreak, looks intriguing.

It sucks living down here as a snow lover. Missing out on the January storm last year sucked since that was the biggest snowstorm since 2002! Good luck up there! Looks like it should be a good one! A solid warning-criteria event, at least, and potentially something more memorable.

I miss snow.

Looks like DC is getting good snow this morning.

I believe they got over 6" in the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010. And before that, January 2009.

You guys did really well in January 2009, as well.

You could add January 2013, February 2012, and January 2011 to this list, as well.

3-6” for DC somehow, some way with this one, you just know it.

A Mt. Airy jackpot is still very possible. I don't know how, but Frosty has stopped in and said that this isn't his storm and wished luck to folks to his south and east. This is usually the course things take before Frosty ends up getting snowed in.

Banking on impressive ratios usually leads to disappointment. It sure doesn't look like our normal slop for most, but I wouldn't bank on much better than 10:1. Something always seems to go wrong to hamper ratios in the South, even in cold storms.