WinterWolf
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Everything posted by WinterWolf
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This. We can't even figure out what it's going to do 5-6 days from now with regard to this potential system/storm or whatever it turns into, for whoever it may be for??? There's going to be a moderation for sure, but I wouldn't be too worried about it.
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Fabulous summary....and very easy to understand. Thanks!
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Yes um. Nice shift there on EPS..we take.
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Yes you're in N. SNE so Jan 16 sucked there I agree. But it was Excellent on the CT Shore where 16 plus inches was common place....and even well inland at my location we picked up 10 plus inches out of that system. But once a lil North of Hartford lat it dropped off very fast to almost nothing
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Jan '16 and Jan 1996...both were slated as MA specials quite late in the game, and then they marched north enough to give Good results and Great results respectively in SNE. Ofcourse no two set ups are exactly alike, but you can see where this compares to those previous situations....we wait and watch.
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I think they'd like what it was showing if it was showing snow and cold...but most would know to take that too, with a grain of salt. That model is all over the place in the long range(as are many lately), so I wouldn't be getting to excited either way with what it shows for the LR OP run..but that's just me.
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I wouldn't bet anything on that model....you can Hug it if you want though.
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If you were an on air forecaster tonight...what would you be telling your viewers right now?? theres no chance of a storm? Or the storm is coming?? Or, it’s possible that it can go either way?? I mean right now it’s kind of really up in the air what may or may not happen. Nothing wrong at this juncture to say that.
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Very true Jerry. But it would still be nice...even though we're playing with house money to muster something..even a consolation prize would be fine.
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What will suck, is if we whiff on two events that could have produced(Wed and the upcoming one that right now looks to whiff at the moment). Yes Jan 16 was a whiff like this right along too, and then it gave a pretty decent event to CT and RI and SE Mass..ofcourse not the Blockbuster it was in NYC and south, but significant for sure. Be nice if this one late Wknd/early next week can muster a lil something for SNE??
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I don't know if I'd be saying that at this lead time...GFS is notoriously bad with set ups like this, and it's a very complicated set up with many SW's all over the place in the flow...models are going to struggle for a while on this...it's far from figured out.
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No, I caught that Berg....c'mon now, I just wanted to give Lurker a bit of credit-he's learning.
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Lmao....he gave you a bit of your own sarcasm right there. Gotta give him credit for that one. Nice comeback by Lurker....
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lol ya, you love busting chops. But I was asking a serious question to Anthony....what has changed for him to change his tune??
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But Anthony, just 6 hours ago you said in the NYC forum, that it wasn’t looking good for a hit in NYC...due to teleconnections changing for the worse at the time of this potential system... now you say it’s coming??? What has changed in 6 hours to make you think this is all of a sudden coming...when we(SNE) are even significantly more north than NYC??
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Ryan’s channel Just indicated that there will be a big coastal storm coming up the coast towards New England next weekend...but they say as of now it looks to stay out to sea...
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Because that’s what he wants and is wishing for...I don’t think there’s much more to it than that.
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Of course you do James...I wouldn’t think you’d think anything other than that!
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Ya I think this supposed warm up is starting to show signs of it not being what some feared...obviously that’s a good thing. Again, long range is very volatile..I wouldn’t put to much trust into any one thing??? The whole “PIG IS COMING THING” never sat well with me, especially as Jerry pointed out that it has been out there for quite some time ...and is having issues getting much, if any closer?? To me that’s a sign that modeling is struggling..and not to trust any one thing.
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Dear Lord does he ever...he's shaking like leaf looking at model runs just hoping for some Cyclogenesis somewhere on the east coast.
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Lol you are looking so hard to find a way for this to work out...you're all mixed up. Holy Sh*t James....Just Chill for god sakes.
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Thanks. Next! 0-1.
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Yes, A lil movement in favorable direction is needed soon for sure...we'll see later today what we get????
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I'd have to agree with you here. I don't think 12z is the deadline if we don't see improvements. If tonight at 0z there's still no movement in a favorable direction...then it's slipping away for sure. As OceanStWx just said, it's(our SW) out over the NE Pacific even up until tonight...so still poor sampling at 12z today. But it would be encouraging to see a lil movement in favorable direction at 12z today to lift the mood that an event is possible.
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Oh it did for sure!
