WinterWolf

Well, it’s smart to be very skeptical, but let’s just hope things can trend in the direction we want them too. That high/ridging looks to be getting stronger the last couple days. But as we all know there’s a very long way to go here.

Agreed. Be nice to have some type of threat to get a little excited about. But ya, it’s very early still…thing ain’t even a depression yet.

That high is starting to go bonkers…1033 now and dropping down to the south and East….

That high over SE Canada is even stronger today than it was yesterday by 3mb.

You don’t know that…and you know it. But by all means play the odds…it’s worked most times.

Not a bad idea…lol. But I think we’re on letter L.

Holy smokes for sure..

Be real, folks love extreme and dangerous weather…especially folks here on a weather board. Most folks here would be giddy if this becomes an east coast threat. Doesn’t make one a bad or evil person, or a disaster monger. It’s just the nature of the beast. Extreme/exciting weather is a rush for weather freaks. And it’s not in anybody’s control, no matter how much you wish it to hit, or wish it away. So it makes no difference if you hope for it, or not, because if it’s gonna hit, and destroy stuff, it’s gonna hit. Nobody can will it either way.

Off topic some, but Was just thinking how the “I” named Tropical cyclones have been so notorious….Ione, Inez, Isabel, Irene, Ian, Isaias, Isidore, Igor, Ike, Ida, Irma, Ivan, Idalia. I mean that I storm has been a bitch and infamous for many. That’s amazing when you think about it. “I” has the most retired names of any letter in the Atlantic. Ok, back to our originally scheduled programming.

Yes, 100% agree. And like you said, it’s something to look at instead of the nothing that has been our weather of late..,I mean even San Diego got a hurricane lmao, talk about low probability there, now maybe this is the year we get our turn too?

And then there’s that too lol. My only take away from these runs that show it approaching, is that there are now some players appearing that “could” make things at least somewhat interesting.

Lmao….the Ginxys and scooters just playing the overwhelming odds of a recurve, and crushing the hopes and dreams of folks. 99% of the time it’s gonna be a recurve. Go with that every time, and you’ll be right every time(except within the last 100 yrs when it wasn’t like in ‘38 and in the 50’s with Carol and Diane and in ‘85 with Gloria, and with Bob in ‘91, and in 2011 with Irene, and 2012 with Sandy, and in 2020 with Isaias)….And yes, most times it’s a decaying dying mess if and when it does get up here, so it’s just really not much of a big deal even when it does hit. “BUT”, it’s is much too early to know this 100% goes OTS, at this early stage. So Play the odds and you’ll most likely look smart 99% of the time(although persistence forecasting will eventually bite), as that’s always the obvious and most likely answer. I agree, this is a recurve and a miss, only because it almost always is. But there are some interesting players looking to come on the field as 95L starts to approach, that could entice him for a visit. But it’s To early to say definitively if he actually gets a true invitation. But at the very least, we now have something to watch over the next week, which breaks the boring monotony of the late summer doldrums.

I’m heading to Tampa on Friday the 8th for a destination wedding of a good buddy, at the Postcard Inn on St Pete beach.…coming home Monday the 11th. We were glad that Idalia missed Tampa this week due to the wedding. It’ll be interesting to see what this next one does?

Hmm.. so you’re changing your tune now from the not happening posts of earlier? I know, I’m busting chops, but ya that GFS run was intriguing for sure.

Still far enough out there that things can’t be ruled out, but we need to see the door opening as FXWX said.

What “major” hurricane hit us in SNE since ‘38? Major being Category 3 and up? Gloria and Bob weren’t even close to majors when they hit us. And Carol and Diane and the others in the 50’s I don’t believe were majors when they hit up here either. Sandy wasn’t even classified as tropical, and hit in Jersey. But enlighten me if any were Cat 3’s when hitting us, because maybe I’m wrong as you claim?

Why do you give me a weenie, when I said something similar in regard to this TC? We all know the odds are always very low of a TC strike up here…and when others/me say that, you throw a weenie? Makes no sense?

Ya it’s always a one in a million up here…and we’ll still be counting another miss two weeks from now. Great place to live …very little atmospheric damage up this way.

Ahh ok…thank you for the explanation. Didn’t read above before I posted, so missed your reasoning, my mistake. Makes sense. Edit: I went back to look for your post with the explanation Don, which said you posted it an hour ago, and I couldn’t find it? Was it from the tropics page perhaps?

85 yrs since the last major in 38, seems like a reasonable span of time to get the next one in here….it’d be an exciting ride tracking a beast like that on its way up this way, especially in this (modern) day and age that’s for sure.

Out to sea is always favored…the odds are always very high of that happening. Don, what makes you sure this turns into a big dog? Is it the modeling that gives you that confidence? Or are you seeing something else?

If the particulars of the Great Lakes and New Foundland circulation mode are even being modeled right at this two week lead time…I’d bargain that they aren’t(as you obviously know). So as you said, there is lots of time to see how that particular set up(circulation) ultimately unfolds in reality.

After you’re done with full time work, Nothing seems as bad lol. And that’s a fact. Being a teacher I can attest to that during the summer and being off…it’s the best.

Pay attention to police work, not the CFS on 9/1.

He’s talking about the big -PNA(which you call RNA), you’re talking about the -PDO…obviously two different things, but you’re saying the -PDO ruined things too? See I was under the impression that the incredibly -PNA was what hurt us the most. But you’re thinking the -PDO hurt us as well?