WinterWolf
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Everything posted by WinterWolf
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Made landfall on Long Island and then in CT. Some info I looked up said cat 3 on landfall in LI. Some other info said cat 2 on landfall. NHC said cat 3 on first landfall in LI, but then it made another landfall in Groton, CT. Whether it was a cat 3 at that point I don’t know…? But whatever..it’s close I guess.
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I think he knows. We all know. But it does happen. And it will happen again. And there are some big players that look to be evolving in the modeling. So I think that’s what most of us are talking about. Sure, there’s a much higher chance it misses us, but the chances are not zero, and they seem to be going up some of late. So we play along for a while, until it becomes definite it misses. I mean, San Diego got a Hurricane a couple weeks ago…Boring frieken San Diego..let that sink in for a minute.
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Officially For SNE, it wasn’t a major. It was a major for you on LI, but it was a cat 2 when it came into CT. So technically it’s at 85 yrs for a major for SNE.
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A massive winter storm for SNE…? C’mon Brett you’re better than this, we see one almost every year in SNE. Sometimes a couple. And it’s exponentially easier to get a Blizzard to hit us, than a Major Hurricane. Haven’t had a true major H hit SNE in 85 yrs. We’ve had dozens of big winter storms in that same time period.
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Lots of moving on parts…lots to figure out. Some big players look to be there, but can they come together enough…
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Society halted for a ‘38 redux…let’s give it a whirl.
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It would be devastating….but I wouldn’t be worried at all about a cat 4. And a Cat 3 is almost a unicorn up here too(except 38 and the ones from the colonial period). But a strong cat 1 or 2 certainly isn’t impossible, and that would be a big hit with our heavily treed and populated area. But I’ll roll the dice with this one, and hope we break the hurricane Drought.
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Glad you’re a fortune teller. You can’t possibly say that with any confidence at this stage….that’s a guess at this point.
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I believe it was the first model back in Feb 06 to show the Feb blizzard as a big hit that year….and it ended up it was right. That was Probably the last it’s been right…lol. Edit: sorry I’m thinking of the JMA…but they’re probably in the same league.
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18-19 wasn’t to good here overall. Ya the November storm/snow was nice. But it ended up below normal here I believe(nothing like this years past abortion), but below normal.
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I get it…but for me any big weather event that has a shot at giving us a big whack is exciting to me. A monster winter storm that’s heading for the area is tough to beat for me. If this turns into a bonafide and legit threat, I’ll feel the same way as when a blizzard is on the horizon for us. But that’s just me.
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Quite.
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Ya, I don’t know about that? A big winter storm/blizzard possibility is pretty exciting, and has much better odds than a major Cane for SNE. But, if this trends to something significant for us, then it will become very interesting, and potentially exciting if that indeed begins to unfold. But as of now I don’t feel that way. Pump the brakes currently…long way to go.
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We’d be saying…OHHHHH Canada.
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Lol…when the OP was showing it getting close, its Ensemble's were going east. Now the OP completely misses(18z), and Ensemble’s are coming west. The fact the ensembles are shifting west is the bigger deal anyway.
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Will be soon.
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It already looks decent lol….
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Like a Katrina…she was big and powerful.
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Oh ya, I get that too. Well thing hasn’t even formed yet, so just have to give it some time.
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Agreed.
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Yes I do agree at this early stage. Thing isn’t even a depression yet. And days and days away from even approaching the east coast. But things need to keep evolving to have a legit shot. The next few days will be telling for sure. Very Low confidence currently anything can come of it, but still too early to be ruled out completely.
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Thanks John, appreciate the explanation. I do understand the whole idea…and also understand the repeat period length. But the way I see it, We’ve been very fortunate, and are beyond the repeat time for a full fledged hurricane to impact SNE. Can only get so lucky so many times, before the luck runs out, and one gets pulled up here. I think we’re coming close, or are past that repeat period. No?
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What a waste then…another fish storm. Hopefully it doesn’t even materialize if that’s the case.
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Bahaha…Now that’s f’n funny!
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We need a little excitement in the weather department….it’s been a long time since a hurricane really hit NewEngland. But Don’t worry, there’s a 98% chance it won’t get in here.
