The 4 Seasons

Snow cover? Maybe for a couple hours. The one and only storm you got (and myself) was Jan 19-20th 2002 aka the Foxborough Storm. The day after was about 40F and then got into the 50s and 60s for the next several days. I'm guessing whatever snow fell overnight that night was gone by about noon the next day. It was in CT. The only season worse than 01-02 in the past 150 or so years of records in NYC is 72-73. Only 2.8" was measured that entire season. If you dont get a flake more than it might be just as bad as 01-02 for you but that season felt like no winter at all. It was warm all the time, there were never any storm threats at all to speak of. I don't think this one will end as bad as that for NYC. You've also had less going into Feb than this season, 06-07, 07-08, 94-95, 92-93 and 91-92.

Because god hates you

lol no. He def doesn't, closest he comes is not getting shot and killed.

I've been saying this over and over but a bit more liberal with timing being Thursday afternoon the start and as you said fully sampled at 00Z tomorrow night, or 00Z Friday. That is probably the definitive time to throw in the proverbial towel.

No help from the GEFS. The mean appears in about the same spot as 12Z. The member spread has tigthened up with more clustering around the mean and really no rogue few NW members like 12Z had.

Dr. Dews. Trust him...he's a doctor.

H5 is definitely encouraging and we are d3 out from the 12z runs so we have some time to improve things, we've done it with a lot less lead time than this. Only thing thats really annoying is this shit airmass.

Eps Mean Qpf def ticked back from 6Z its been steadily shaving off since 18z yesterday. The mean snow total is hilarious its about 0-1.5 for SNE. Prob because most are misses and the hits are counted as mainly rain.

You're doing pretty well 3.35"...you can almost make a snowcone with that.

Bomb threat clearout starting in 3...2...1...

This. Southern CT, RI, SE MA is going to need a perfect solution to pull a 6+ warning event.

might as well start a thread to seperate the storm discussion to general Feb discussion. 95% of the posts are about this storm alone. Just for organization sake.

Even if this comes west, still worried about ptype issues down in southern/coastal CT. It's going to have to pan out perfectly with a good track and strong slp, i.e. thread the needle to see 6"+ from this one

18Z EPS Mean QPF

Probability is pretty low right now so it's a realistic statement to make. Once the energy starts to come onshore tomorrow we'll have better sampling and a better idea. Don't throw in the towel just yet.

And we need to #freeleo.

The last piece of energy looks like it's coming on shore on Thursday morning/aftn

Mar 4-6 2001 was the slowest mover i think i've ever seen. Nearly 60hrs. Would love another one of those demons, and have it all snow this time. As far as the UKMET, the snow maps are awful. It appears its counting anything above 0C at the surface as rain. My location is just barely above 0C at the surface (bottom 25mb or so) and the rest of the column is below and another 0.35 falls after that, so id have to say we at least get several inches but the snow map is showing near zero.

Not really, its def worse than 00Z and the GEFS is way SE.

These acronyms and esoteric slang really annoy me, what does EMATT mean? btw you hit 13 weenies, that is probably a record now lol.

Thats why NYC sucks for snow. Time to move.

painful memories. glad it worked out for you though.

We are talking...a solid... 1 to 3 feet of snow. Here's...the demon. Here's...the demon. Rival the blizzard of '78. Even stronger. We're gonna whacked.