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Everything posted by audioguy3107

  1. Jeez that's close, can't wait..........I'm trying to remain calm here at 34/35 degrees.
  2. Hard to believe how close the freezing temps are to us here on the NE side of Atlanta.......all we need is a couple more degrees before the heavy stuff moves in and it could be jackpot time. I'm cautiously optimistic seeing the returns way back in Alabama.
  3. Are you near downtown Gainesville? If you're seeing flurries what's your temperature? I just stepped outside work for a sec. and it just started sprinkling, saw someone earlier reporting sleet in Buford. - Buck
  4. I'm about 15 min. south of you here in Flowery Branch...I think if we can hold off the bulk of the precip for a few more hours, we may be in the jackpot zone........guidance has shifted the heaviest band just north of the city, but I assume that's because of the borderline temps.......curious to see how borderline they'll be in this area once 9 or 10 o'clock rolls around. - Buck
  5. I really think those of us north of Atlanta will be OK as long as the temps don't rise much above 36-37.......staying out of the low 40's is critical.....good to see these low dewpoints in the area as well. - Buck
  6. It's interesting to see how the rain/snow line sets up in the Atlanta always seems to cut the city roughly in half east/west or along I-85. Seen it too many times to count. If the NAM does come to fruition and temps are slightly too warm, it could really cut down on things down in your neck of the woods. Amazing how just about every single setup around here yield the same possibilities. - Buck
  7. That's very helpful. We're down to 45 here south of Gainesville. Living in the Atlanta metro, this has all the makings of a complete bust or another epic snowmaggedon. If the temperature can hold in the mid to upper 30's tomorrow and we get heavier precip in here faster than forecast, it could make for another epic Friday afternoon rush hour, especially if there is any scrambling to pull kids out of school. I don't think that will happen, but there's only a few hours and a couple degrees between a normal Friday rush and another traffic disaster. It is possible. - Buck
  8. This is a great storm for the upcoming model faceoff since all or them seem to have their quirks with this system. The GFS is gonna get tarred and feathered if it busts based on 10 or so consistent runs like Cheez said. That being said, from a selfish perspective I'm really happy with my location since I'm literally pinpointed in the middle between Atlanta, Gainesville and Athens.
  9. GFS at 60 has precip field further north, low still west of the Tampa area. Little better run for us in N. Georgia.
  10. I would much rather fret over a sharp precipitation field cutoff rather than fret over a chance of 34 degrees and rain. There's gonna be a cutoff somewhere to the NW but I wouldn't imagine it would be too much further south unless the model consensus shifted even further south.
  11. This is really an amazing stretch of (non) weather. Atlanta hit another record high yesterday. I live in the NE suburbs and IMBY I have seen exactly one shower since the middle of August. Literally. Not one drop here other than that one day in over 70 days. Yikes. - Buck
  12. Ok ok sorry, almost parallel (to the upper east coast i.e. Melbourne, Daytona Beach, not the Miami area). Definitely NNW though. Calm down.
  13. If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.
  14. While I agree it's too early to make a definitive call, if you look at the most recent satellite loop, unless it makes a pretty decent bend to the west, I don't see how it makes it to the coast, it looks like it's already moving parallel and it's well offshore.
  15. If you look at the motion with the latitude/longitude lines, you can see the eye made a wobble slightly north of NW, but the overall motion is definitely to the NW right now. Looking forward to seeing new recon......looks like the deepest convection is almost wrapped around the eye....the CDO has expanded and looks much more symmetrical and all that in a span of 8 hours or so. I would be surprised to not see some type of pressure drop. I run at high end cat 4 is definitely a possibility. - Buck
  16. Another ridiculous wedge here.....what's so darn frustrating is how the CAD always seems to be just weak enough or scoured out in winter systems to prevent winter weather, but come springtime, they are robust to the point of all but eliminating any severe weather threat. I've lived here my whole life and I will speak in absolutes when it comes to late winter, early spring CAD.....don't think I've ever even had a severe storm roll through here with NE winds and 48 degrees.
  17. We're getting moderate to heavy freezing rain here south of Gainesville....our temp here is 31 and yes, we did just have some semblance of a thunderstorm roll through here about 10 minutes ago....decent lightning but looks like accrual will be to a minimum here as well......the band of precip is running through pretty quickly. - Buck
  18. Maybe a good winter/early spring tornado least we wouldn't have to worry about cold high pressure.
  19. I don't know how old you are, but why you got your hopes up for snow here is beyond me........has Atlanta proper EVER gotten a decent snow with the low pressure center tracking this far to the north? That's why I thought there was virtually no chance of accumulating snow here.........listen, I've been here for 40 years and there are 3 scenarios which DO NOT equal Atlanta snowfall 1. A low pressure that tracks far inland instead of hugging the gulf coast 2. Clippers.....we win the lottery if we get a slight dusting 3. Back end, comma head, deformation bands (unless the low pressure tracks sufficiently to the south I.e. March '93. Look at these 3 criteria....if any of them apply to a forecasted storm, then chances of disappointment are virtually 100%.
  20. Due to storm underperformance, things are breaking down on think we'd be used to this by now, but it repeats every year!
  21. Yep, backside snow here in north Georgia is almost NEVER going to workout for significant accumulations unless you have a March '93 type of storm.
  22. Excellent returns pivoting in from northern Alabama for all of us here in N. Georgia.....the question is whether they can hold together......hopefully the strengthening low can enhance the banding over N. Georgia........timing should be right with the sun going down...if we can put together a few hours of that, we'll be in business. It's still snowing over in Birmingham, so we have a long time to go.
  23. Just poked my head outside and we do now have a moderate snow/sleet mix......looks like the rain may be done for........thank God. Hopefully.
  24. Where did you hear those reports? Haven't seen any flakes yet but we're down to 30 here in F. Branch.