audioguy3107

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Everything posted by audioguy3107

  1. This. I never call a bust early, (unless it involves snow in the SE it that's another story) but I think what ticks posters and the mods on here are the quick one liners and snide comments......well, this is a bust, for example. This is a great forum with incredibly knowledgeable people, so it would be more helpful to write up a paragraph explaining why so others can learn rather than the annoying comments. That being said, I,think part of the frustration for posters in north Georgia is how often the CAD and residual cold pools that stay anchored over the state prevent them from experiencing exciting weather.
  2. This is a topic I'd love to get into after the nowcasting is over.........but quickly.......sure, we can have spin ups along a QLCS or our typical embedded rotations along squall lines, but we have never, and I mean never had a forecasted day like this ( mod/high risk, discrete supercells etc.) come to fruition with a cooler stable wedge in place. I've followed severe weather for over 30 years here and if you're in the NE CAD areas, it's not happening until the wedge is gone.
  3. Serious hook echo on the storm now, doesn't WSB have somebody on this cell?
  4. The storm system is definitely battling the wedge, it's trying to force the instability further north and east, but here in Georgia, the wedge wins about, oh, 100% of the time.
  5. They may need to re-warn on the Carrollton storm based on the past few frames. Looks much tighter right now.
  6. I don't think there's any chance there's a TOG with that cell.
  7. The Talladega storm is a really beautiful supercell at the moment.
  8. I'm surprised more numerous discrete storms aren't forming over central Alabama, environment is primed with the approaching cold front......curious as to whether the cells on the Georgia border will be it.
  9. It better stay south of the boundary blanketing north Georgia for it to be any trouble
  10. Not to worry, it's headed for the severe storm wall of death also known as the Georgia border. I'll be very surprised if I'm wrong.
  11. Things better start firing off soon, you can clearly see the cold front on the visible satellite. Still really not much action in Alabama.
  12. Many times in north Georgia, our wedge boundaries in the spring can be somewhat diffuse and reach all the south of the city. The boundary today is very sharp and only encompasses the far NE section of Georgia. Yesterday's STP was bulls eyed from basically the perimeter westward to the Alabama border which seems about right based on current obs. Any cells which form to our west will have a stout boundary to follow as they track off to the east. I think it's going to be on for the city westward but I think areas in the far NE foothills and mountains may remain stable enough to prevent anything really serious.
  13. Any clearing going on right now west of Atlanta? Can't tell....at work until 7PM?
  14. Sorry for the question but at work and haven't been able to keep up today.........any development expected back in central Alabama or was that pretty much it for us in north Georgia (which wouldn't surprise me in the least).
  15. So what is the general consensus on here, does SPC go high risk on the midday update or not?
  16. Most of the convection east of Atlanta looks to miss the majority of the metro to the NW. Looks like everything is really trying to push of to the north now. Keep in mind most of the guidance yesterday had us socked in here until about 1PM......it's possible it's moving north a little quicker than expected.
  17. Rotation tightening up, looks close to putting down the first tornado of the day.
  18. Rotation on the SW Atlanta cell is a little broad but very strong.
  19. Not sure what to make of this mornings convection........it doesn't seem to be nearly as extensive as the usual mass of junkvection that ruins our severe weather days here....at the speed the first wave is going it may be out of here fairly quickly. SPC mentions the warm front stalling just to the north of Atlanta. if the warm sector can stay clear until early afternoon watch out.
  20. Yeah, you're right.....it'll be interesting to see how the first wave of storms play out as to how intense they are. On a side note, where in the world are all the mets? I know there's way more snow lovers on here and all, but man, a major severe threat and no input from anybody? Where's Cheeznado, AbsoluteZero......anybody? - Buck
  21. Unless any new alarms go off between now and then, I think they'll wait to see how the morning convection plays out before upgrading to a high risk. That being said, as of now I don't see a whole lot that would preclude a high risk being issued at some point in the next 24 hrs.
  22. NAM forecast sounding for FFC around 6 - 7 PM. Pretty classic look. Note the sounding "hazard type".....PDS Tornado.
  23. Remember it well, that was the year of the Dunwoody, Ga tornado that tore through the northern part of metro Atlanta. I toured the storm damage the next day and it was a real mess........F2 if I remember correctly. That was a 11PM to 2 AM event for us in north Georgia.
  24. 18z NAM 500 mb vorticity map. Yowzaa.
  25. Couple of things...first, I think the warm front setting up around the northern metro Atlanta area could potentially be worse (for our area) than having it push all the way further north.....some of Georgia's most intense outbreaks (March 2008 comes to mind) have occurred with storms riding east to west along a warm front draped at the foothills of the mountains. Second, regardless of morning convection, it's already going to be much much warmer around here than is typical with these setups in recent years.....heck most of the time we seem to be in the 50's and 60's battling CAD.......we'll be in the low 80's today. Third, I've been following severe setups here for a long time and it's very very rare for the Atlanta metro to be squarely in the bullseye like the above STP map forecast is showing for tomorrow. Very rare. 99% of the time it would be centered in eastern Mississippi and western Alabama, so what's most concerning is the population that will potentially be under the bullseye tomorrow. Sure the SE is more populated than the Great Plains and cities such as Tuscaloosa, Jackson, and Birmingham are sizeable metro areas, but that's nothing compared to the area encompassed by Atlanta. If this holds true, this may be a very rare situation. - Buck