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Everything posted by audioguy3107

  1. I know, I was here, I guess it depends on what you're definition of disaster is. Disaster to me is Hurricane Katrina, Moore, Oklahoma, Harvey, Sandy, et. al. I don't think the metro Atlanta community considers Opal a disaster, heck, I'd be willing to bet if you asked 100 people if they remember Hurricane Opal's remnants and what happened, most couldn't. Anyhoo, what we should be paying attention to here in N. Georgia is how far north Irma can make it before going on shore......the more west, the less time for weakening as it moves into our area. If you take a look at NHC's 11 AM track, it's not inconceivable that Irma could stay over the Gulf until she's north of Tampa!
  2. That's robust alright. Are there any past cases where the GFS and EURO pressure drops have verified to any sort of this magnitude?
  3. I'm pretty excited about the prospects of what could happen here in N. Ga. too, but c'mon, a tropical depression is not going to send Atlanta into a disaster. There'll probably be some power outages and trees down if the models hold true, but disaster? C'mon.
  4. Pretty much nothing wrong with what I posted......I agree that no one should let there guard down and I did not post anything absolute......that's what the words "may" and "probably" mean. It's just amazing to me that with all the model runs and what looked like could have been we're down to watching it trek across the northern coast of Cuba which is having a bit more of an impact than the NHC and others thought (me included).
  5. NHC is Keeping it a Cat 4 at the 8 AM advisory......has recon sampled winds even close to that at this point? Agree that they probably don't want to drop it too much due to complacency perhaps?
  6. The eye is, true, but way too much of the circulation is over land. It needs to pull away fast to have any chance to take off again. It needs a few good north wobbles. It'll be interesting what the 8 AM advisory shows.
  7. Yep, Cuba strikes again. The eye is still going to be scraping the coast in the next 6 hours or so as well......I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 storm by the time she eventually pulls away. With increasing shear forecast, chances of a major making landfall are going down. Intensification is certainly possible but not a guarantee at this point. Once the inner core is damaged like this, it's a rough go.
  8. This is a very crucial next couple of hours which may end up defining the outcome of Irma. You can see on the satellite presentation that she's really beginning to get her act together and strengthen, the IR presentation and eye is about the best it's looked in the last 24 hours. If a NW movement can commence without weakening due to Cuba, i see no reason that Irma can't make a run at a solid cat 5 (175 - 185 mph)....the environment is just too rich. If Irma makes it further inland than the coast and stays there for 6 to 12 hours, then forget about it, I would seriously doubt she could recover. It's amazing that of all the pages, model watching, recon missions etc, it really may come down to the next 3 to 6 hours and whether she stays over the coast.
  9. Good grief, I know it's just a wobble but Irma seems to have actually tracked a tiny bit west southwest on the last couple of frames.
  10. Looking at the radar and satellite loops, it's amazing (and great) for the Miami metro that Irma keeps heading just south of WNW......I'd venture to say that unless Irma gets more of a northern component to her movement, she's gonna spend way too much time over Cuba, coastline or not. I'd be surprised if the inner core is ever able to recover....we've seen this before.
  11. I'm in full agreement with possible deepening in the Florida Straits, but that really depends on how itcan escape Cuba unscathed. The satellite presentation at the moment isn't close to what it has been and almost half the CDO is over Cuba. If it spends any decent amount of time there it'll be really hard for the core to reorganize in time. We've seen what Cuba has done to past storms.
  12. As the hurricane hasn't even made landfall yet, this could be one of the more irresponsible posts I've read throughout this entire 240 page thread.
  13. Unless Irma takes a couple of pretty good wobbles north, I don't see how she doesn't make landfall in Cuba at this point.......looks to have moved due west between 75 and 76 degrees.
  14. Well. Just find one of those blue sheds and all will be ok.
  15. Probably just a wobble to the west, if you look closely at the AVN satellite loop from NHC, it still looks to be heading WNW overall. A big wobble to the west puts Puerto Rico in danger but if it keeps on the current heading it looks like Irma will pass just to the NE of the island. Close call though.
  16. That's one of the tightest spreads in guidance I may have ever seen for a tropical system this far out, especially one approaching land and expected to make a turn.
  17. Good write up by DT except I don't see the WSW movement ending one bit. If you loop the satellite it's still clearly moving WSW.
  18. Most likely a TOG with this cell. Extremely intense.
  19. Cantore is at an almost hysterical level of excitement on TWC. Thought he was gonna be swept into the bay a minute ago. Looks like he's getting Hurricane force gusts.
  20. I'm in the same boat as far as travel goes, although I'm beginning to think that the traffic thing may be a bit overblown (which may just be wishful thinking BTW). Consider one in the path has to travel anywhere, so that's good, that should hold off traffic that would otherwise be heavy, say like during the holidays. No schools are out as far as I know in Atlanta and I would assume that in Charlotte as well. It's a workday, no retail/business/govt is closed outside of the path that I'm aware of, sure many will take the day off, but most people are still working tomorrow. I would figure that at least 1/2 of the Atlanta/birmingham migration would be to the north up to the mountains/up I-75 or Ga 400 or Tennessee rather than fight to go through the city of Atlanta, so that would help I would think. On the contrary, I think the real mess of traffic would be folks heading up I-26 from Charleston and Columbia (if the weather is poor) and the Charlotte people since they would have to go through GSP. I would think 85 north of GSP and I-26/385 could be a real mess, especially if it's cloudy toward the coast.
  21. Nope, not that time, that was just random luck for the Atlanta area, plus there were tornadic storms in the mountainous areas that never would have made it had CAD been present.
  22. Fishel's post on the main event thread seems to be a good one: figure I'd start a "moderate to high risk" bust thread and see if there is enough interest, but hard to get all the snow lovers here to get excited about severe season. That being said, I could go on and on about the reasons that we continually bust on severe weather here (this is really meant for the north Georgia posters BTW), but it really comes down to one thing: the damn wedge. The wedge here is the bane of our weather existence, it either giveth or taketh away. It pretty much dictates what happens, when it happens, and how bad it happens. It cannot be denied, if it is present, all other weather phenomena cease to exist. The only season it goes into hiding is in the middle of the summer. During the winter, 99.5% of the time it makes for a miserable wet, windy and cold day, the other 0.5% of the time it causes widespread power outages, tree damage, and has prevented Atlanta for ever hosting another Super Bowl due to the ice storm until we built a 1.6 Billion dollar stadium. Amazing that in some way, the wedge ultimately caused the building of Mercedes Benz Stadium. I know I'm being a bit silly, and I in no way want to simplify the complex forecasting of meteorology, but seriously, there is no and will never be any type of severe weather in north/northeast Georgia (i.e. CAD areas) with the presence of the wedge, I don't care what the SPC says, forecasts, etc. I've tracked severe weather here for over 30 years, and in my lifetime, no severe weather of any major importance has happened in NE Georgia with the wedge present. It's pretty much that simple. Yes we can have some hail or a gusty dying squall line or some lightning and thunder (although the wedge is excellent at preventing that too), but if you're excited about a moderate or high risk severe outbreak, ask yourself one question: Will there be a wedge or any type of residual cold pool/damming? Yes. No. If no, get prepared (i.e. April 27, 2011, April 8, 1998, Palm Sunday 1994). If yes, don't waste time tracking the event because it won't happen. And I'll add that the NAM consistently showed the absence of any instability in northeast Georgia for at least a day leading up to April 5, I assume due to the early morning convection that came to pass in all it's glory. Perfect case study: the high risk Enterprise, AL tornado outbreak of March 2007. I attached the day 1 outlook, now granted, NE Georgia and the upstate of SC were not in the high risk area, but Atlanta was close enough and well into the moderate risk area. This was the PDS Tornado watch that was issued, I remember it well....I remember it because I was watching drizzle and showers at a balmy 49 degrees. The discussion: DISCUSSION...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE INTENSE UPPER TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING E/NEWD AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. From the mesoscale discussion: STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN GA CURRENTLY APPEAR ELEVATED. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME AS FAR N AS NRN GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED. No it won't. Now I'm sure this would've come to fruition had there not been the presence of the wedge, but the wedge was easily strong enough to hold off this intense upper trough and mid/upper jet. And this is only one example of countless examples I can think of. The wedge is likely to hold off just about anything short of category 5 Hurricane Katrina, although it would probably put up a good fight. I can only imagine what Georgia's tornado statistics would look like without the presence of the CAD ares in the NE, which I ultimately is a blessing although not as fun for weather enthusiasts. Anyway, severe weather forecasting is complicated and I understand you have to err on the side of caution, but if you are expecting a severe weather event north of I-20 in Georgia or the upstate of SC, all you really need to know to get started is whether you know what will be present.
  23. Well, nothing like ending the day on a bang, just had the line move through here and it started dropping quarter to half dollar sized hail. Biggest hailstones I've seen IMBY since March 2008. Not even severe warned. What a weird system.
  24. Not sure what the correct answer is, it seems the last couple of years they've been opting for more high risk areas but targeted for a much smaller area than they used to.....heck If I remember correctly, the high risk area during the April 1998 outbreak covered like 10% of the country.
  25. I don't know if I've ever seen this many discrete storms with some type of rotation whether weak or strong not have any type of warning on them in the FFC warning area.....guess it goes to show they're not too concerned with them at this point either.