TSG

84hr NAM posters deserve the "weenie" tag /rant over

I noticed the GFS and Euro are considerably colder than the NAM3k. Are the mesoscale models going to be better at estimating this?

Headed back down after a high of 30 in Charlottesville currently 27/1 under full sun

Ice accreting quickly in Charlottesville... ready for the back end now

Surprising seeing all of the reports of rapid warmup to the north. The cold is holding strong in Charlottesville, we've been floating around 21 for the past 1.5 hrs. Mix of sleet and freezing drizzle with this last hurrah band

Anyone with the knowledge want to chime in on SLEET ratios? I've seen 2-4:1 listed all over, not a large range, I don't have a clue what influences that like I do snow. Are there specific "growth" conditions for less dense ice? Or is the upper end of the range the result of only partially melted snow?

Absolutely dumping sleet down here in Charlottesville at 14F. One of the more unique weather experiences I've had

The yellows flipped us quickly down here. Pouring sleet at 12 degrees

We've wet-bulbed all the way down to 12F in Albemarle. Forecast low for tonight was 17. I like that! light to moderate snow 12F/9F

Radar is lighting up over Albemarle and Nelson

Temps are busting low down here in central VA. Forecast high was 23 for Charlottesville. Currently 18/-15 at CHO

Yeah at or under 24 hrs. It's still in lalaland at this range. It's a lesson learned literally every storm and somehow forgotten by the next one

Looks great to me

why are we looking at anything the 12k NAM has to say past 48 hrs? how many times do we have to learn this?

I think it's having issues with snow vs sleet/zr as well? Look at this 6z sounding over DC @ 18z Sun.. maps say zr. That looks like snow to me unless there's a sneaky warm layer in there