TSG

I'll be using that and the HRRR/NAM soundings to try and figure that out. This morning in Ablemarle the saturated layer looked to end around 950mb so I would think 2000ft is enough.

That's a great idea... I might do that too. You think the Afton Mtn overlook on 64 has enough elevation? Or need to be up in the park?

68 under full sun here

Smarch is back on the menu

Ripping SN/SN+ in Hooville 28/17

84hr NAM posters deserve the "weenie" tag /rant over

I noticed the GFS and Euro are considerably colder than the NAM3k. Are the mesoscale models going to be better at estimating this?

Headed back down after a high of 30 in Charlottesville currently 27/1 under full sun

Ice accreting quickly in Charlottesville... ready for the back end now

Surprising seeing all of the reports of rapid warmup to the north. The cold is holding strong in Charlottesville, we've been floating around 21 for the past 1.5 hrs. Mix of sleet and freezing drizzle with this last hurrah band

Anyone with the knowledge want to chime in on SLEET ratios? I've seen 2-4:1 listed all over, not a large range, I don't have a clue what influences that like I do snow. Are there specific "growth" conditions for less dense ice? Or is the upper end of the range the result of only partially melted snow?

Absolutely dumping sleet down here in Charlottesville at 14F. One of the more unique weather experiences I've had

The yellows flipped us quickly down here. Pouring sleet at 12 degrees

We've wet-bulbed all the way down to 12F in Albemarle. Forecast low for tonight was 17. I like that! light to moderate snow 12F/9F

Radar is lighting up over Albemarle and Nelson