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paulythegun

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Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    Delete the thread and start another?
  2. paulythegun
  3. paulythegun
    FINAL MAP
  4. paulythegun
    Time for the 12z day before the storm tradition: posting idiotic models while we wait for the Euro. The 12z ARPEGE. Still waiting for the GDAP/UM(mmmm) model to run.
  5. paulythegun
    I've been keeping it in the panic room. But GFS was actually colder on this run so the north trend was mitigated a bit. Stilll.....knife's edge!
  6. paulythegun
    (keeping these in the panic room to avoid spoiling the jolly mood) i may chase north. latest GFS is amazing....and actually the column is a bit colder! but as a resident of Mt. Hamilton in NE DC, i don't care for this trend. i always figured this one would be heavy snow into street puddles in the city but with so much snow just north, worth chasing...
  7. paulythegun
    NORTH. But on the bright side, LWX has temps never reaching freezing in the city until Saturday at 9pm!
  8. paulythegun
    uh oh. North Trend!
  9. paulythegun
    Looking at the timing here...NAM 3k has about 3-4 hours of precip falling for the city, but well over 0.1" an hour. In other words: definitely set your alarm if you want to see some fatty pukage tonight.
  10. paulythegun
    https://x.com/hotwxexpert/status/1758358847951958038?s=46
  11. paulythegun
    GRAF is in
  12. paulythegun
    I need an app that wakes me with an alarm any time snow rates go above an inch per hour.
  13. paulythegun
    Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens
  14. paulythegun
    Kuchera (as I understand it) is highly sensitive to the maximum temperature in kelvin in up to 500mb (Tmax below). I ran the calculation for DC for the Euro where the max temp is 273..15 in Kelvin (0 degrees C) during the height of the storm and that translates to 8.01 to 1 ratios using the Kuchera method.
  15. paulythegun
    Move your cars!!!
  16. paulythegun
    woof
  17. paulythegun
    *to the tune of American Woman* JET STREAK LEFT EXIT REGION
  18. paulythegun
    Time to beg @MikeTFox5 to post the latest Graf Model. Will report back.
  19. paulythegun
    If this thing arrived during the day, with this middling airmass (and middling moisture that isn't going to overcome temps outside of localized banding), I guess it would just be some wet white rain right? For the city at least. At least if you buy NAM.
  20. paulythegun
    haha right. Dew points kind of suck on this run....never gets below freezing inside the beltway.
  21. paulythegun
    QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!! ....from 0.2" to 0.3"
  22. paulythegun
    NAM is a wiggle south with the low, both 3k and 12k (vs 06z).
  23. paulythegun
    Don't forget to move your car during the Special Weather Statement!
  24. paulythegun
    Surprisingly few posts. Is he deleting his wrong predictions? I respect that https://twitter.com/search?q=hounds from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=live https://twitter.com/search?q=hound from%3A%40bigjoebastardi&src=typed_query&f=live
  25. paulythegun
    The last week of March looks rockin'!
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