Buffalo Bumble

18 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Some impressive velocities showing up over Amherst with that severe thunderstorm right now. Nearly 70mph. Wanna hear from some posters up that way! 

Sorry, really late to the party on this…That was in fact an intense but very quick hitting storm here. Wind came out of nowhere and blew furiously for only about 30 seconds. Family was sitting by a window and branches started slamming against it at which point an aunt said “should we head to the basement?”  Numerous large branches down in the neighborhood. Lost power for about 2 hours. 

Couple tropical downpours here already so I’ll stop my whining about how dry it’s been. Long overdue here though. Lake shadow isn’t invincible after all. 

20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

12z nam seems to be dialing back the rain quite a bit in the first few frames already. 

Let’s see if the Amherst/Snyder rain shield holds up today. So far so good. Radar showing solid batch of rain sliding off to our west and another batch forming to our southeast that will miss. Was hoping for a meaty batch of moderate rain for at least a few hours but might have to settle for pop up quick hitters. 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

I finished with 1.10" of liquid overnight..

More chances for storms this afternoon..

Send some this way please. Everything keeps missing. Not official, but don’t think we’ve cracked the 1 inch barrier over the last 60 days. If we have it’s definitely not by much. Anything not watered is crispy brown. 

30 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That lake shadow is a formidable foe to rain. 

It really is quite remarkable. And on the flip side it’s prolific at generating rain on either side from the converging air. On the positive side for us desert dwellers I suppose it won’t be long before all of Lake Erie gets up into the 70’s and the lake shadow fades. 

10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

We ducked and dodged all day, unfortunately.  I wanted rain so badly. Only .05” in my gauge. 

 Same here. BUF finished June close to 2” below normal rainfall which is a lot when average I think is around 3”. Barely an inch IMBY over the last 2 months. Maybe something falls here in the next few days with the wind out of the N/NW instead of coming out of the SW up the length of the precip crushing lake? 

37 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Disappointing heat today.  The storms that passed just to my south really killed the Sizzle, knocking us back into the 80s despite no rain here.  And a chilly low of 71 forecasted?  How can I maintain 86 degree pool temp with that kind of coldness? I want Portland heat... Do better tomorrow.

Speaking of Portland…sitting at 115 degrees currently.  Hard pass on that. 

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like GFS trended stronger (closer) with the HP off the coast allowing the boundary to stay farther west..IE less rain...

If we go with persistence the eastern extent of the rain will be Buffalo Outer Harbor (desertification setting in here from lack of rain...front came through dry yesterday). If we go with the “you’re due” approach BUF will get 10” of rain from Saturday to Monday. I know, solid forecasting metrics here...

20 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Never say never….

However, I do agree that it does seem like the “droughts” in my limited snapshot of 35 years here are really just across the span of a season or two.  The idea of a multi-year drought is truly scary, but at least we (humans as a whole) now have the ability to just move to a new area, which seems like it may become necessary for many in the SW. 

The SW and to an extent the intermountain  west does have the monsoon season coming up to maybe provide some relief.  Hopefully it’s a robust one this year. That’s a pretty cool weather phenomenon. 

36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wpc going with 1.5"-2" locally as it stands now..

Really hope we get something out of this in BUF area. Hardly anything yesterday. Just doesn’t want to rain here. 

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last update 10:37 pm EDT Jun 12, 2021

It looks accurate temps are 66-67 around airport at all the weather stations I'm seeing and last update was 90 minutes ago. It's 65 here.

Thanks for checking. Any snow or ice patches left up on the high peaks?

If anyone in the BUF area has a reliable outdoor thermometer please do me a favor and check your obs against the NWS. They had that sensor problem last year that was only fixed after we pointed it out. I’m noticing temp obs consistently coming in 3-5+ deg higher than surrounding areas. Case in point, 71 deg ob right now at BUF while NF is 65 and Roch is 62. 

Just perusing some climo stats and seeing every month at BUF since January has had below normal precipitation. And not by a little...each month .5 inch or more below average. This following a bone dry summer last year. The lake shadow will always reduce precip chances here in summer but the lack of any region wide precip events lately has been quite pronounced. 

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm heading to Adirondacks to hit up 5 more peaks tomorrow and will be making that exact drive. Leaving at 10 pm, hiking at 5 am, driving home tomorrow night. 3 of us going, 18 mile hike. Wish me luck with my allergies and black flies. 

@wolfie09 You're close to dacks, how are black flies over there?

That’s a seriously quick trip to bag 5 high peaks, good luck!!

Interesting model verification “experience” here today. Modeling has been showing far WNY on the edge of the mid continent heat dome around this timeframe as the northeast “heat wave” breaks down. Sure enough here we are today in BUF with a quite toasty airmass overhead, mid 80’s now with dews rising and sun bearing down, while Watertown is a drizzly low 70’s. I imagine temps and dews steadily drop as one trucks down the 90 from BUF today. Nice work models. 

Looks like the front has cleared the north country. DP’s in the mid 50’s around Watertown, still near 70 from Buf to Cuse. Very interesting satellite picture and regional radar showing clouds and storm cells pressing northeast to southwest. Odd to see storms rolling in that direction in NYS. 

Very interesting micro fluctuations IMBY with this lake breeze. I noticed it slack off a bit a few times and the air took on an entirely different feel...more humid and temp jumped up. Kicked in strongly about an hour ago and air has a “marine” feel with comfortable temp in the mid 70’s. While probably 10 miles away temps are climbing through the 80’s. Pretty “cool” to observe. 

2 hours ago, cny rider said:

46F for a high here today.

Unreal.

 

Incredible. That’s what, about 24 degrees below normal?  That would translate to one of those rare 0 degree high temp days in January. It happens, just more shocking some times of year than others. 

7 hours ago, brentrich said:

If it happened in Jan/Feb, how much do you think we would be getting? 2-3 feet of snow? 

Poor snow growth, 2-4” at BUF from 1.1” liquid equivalent...

Mostly ice pellets now here (Chaumont). Sticking to my sweatshirt. One to add to weather folklore I guess... “You think this this Memorial Day weekend is bad, I remember one MD weekend where I had ice pellets piling up on my sweatshirt with a windchill in the 20’s...”. 

10 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

There will be some flakes somewhere in the Dacks.

I’m at our cottage in Chaumont (northeast end of Lake Ontario). Pretty sure some mangled flakes were mixed in as precip started about 30 minutes ago. Looks and feels like November, minus greenery. 

So sad to hear this!  Innocence and enthusiasm oozed out of James’ posts. Props to you all in this forum for making it a safe haven for him to express all his thoughts and wild weather hopes. 

88 at BUF approaching 8pm. Shades of last year starting to appear...

How much snow for LEK?  I smirked a week or so ago when there were posts about “one last shot at snow”. Get me to June before I consider snow season done. Looks like the high elevations might get snow tomorrow too. 

Not sure what’s more depressing, 8 hours of daylight and cloudy all day in November or 14.5 hours of daylight and cloudy all day in May. We’ve had some breaks here and there but clouds have been tough to budge lately.