Buffalo Bumble

Kind of a random thought but I’m wondering if the term “January thaw” should be removed from our vocabulary in upstate NY. Used to be we would get a day or 2 near 60 in January and things would start to thaw out. Funny how the term was used like it was an atmospheric condition or something. Anyway, we might need to flip it entirely around to “January freeze”.  Sitting here at BUF with less than 10 inches on the season and only rarely dropping below freezing at night…I’m looking forward to that 3-5 day “January freeze” when it snows and temps stay below freezing. Then things go back to normal and we hover near 40 for rest of the winter. 
 

Ok, that’s a bit tongue in cheek and inspired by this perpetual early November weather, but it’s actually kinda true nowadays. I’ve said this before and probably sound like a broken record, but I think someone posted a stat that BUF’s average winter temp has risen 2-4 degrees since 1970. We were always riding the line here between deep/rarely interrupted winter (take a boat trip across Lake Ontario and enter the great white north) and winter scraps (see Harrisburg, PA). I fear that the temp increase has permanently placed us in the fighting for scraps zone. If the global temp was 11 deg F colder during the last ice age, a 2-4 degree winter warming here is probably enough to consider changing our forum name to something like “The New Mid-Atlantic”. 

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’m also wondering what kind of weather we’ll have for the bills game. These last two games are must wins.  Some of the models show the possibility of interesting weather once again on Sunday behind the front.  

Would normally say bring it but the Pats game showed we’re better off with benign conditions. Need to keep the passing offense rolling! 

So BUF is at +6.1 degrees for December and nowhere to go but up these last few days of the month.  Ouch. 

Merry Christmas everyone!  Just got back in from a long hike with the dog in steady freezing rain, temp at 30 degrees (Chaumont). Don’t recall hiking in these conditions before. Dog’s black fur turned to silver from the icicles (pretty cool). My jacket was covered in a layer of ice when I got back (also pretty cool). Not exactly ideal hiking conditions but at least it had a winter element! 

Happy Holidays from Chaumont Bay! Some thin ice in the points around the bay, this photo facing south/southwest from the end of Independence Point. About one inch OTG here. Was hoping I could escape the rain up north here but looks like a period of wet even here tomorrow. 

Congrats Roc/CNY people!  Frozen bare ground here (beats mud!). Like the look of longer range models this morning, heading into NY’s. Let’s hope it holds, no more steps back! 

So close yet so far here today. Started out so promising, nice snowfall at daybreak with an inch OTG by 9 am. Quickly went to sh&$*t after that. 34 deg and rain for 8 straight hours. Would be easier to take if something, anything was showing up on the modeling in the next 2 weeks other than cool down, dry, rain showers in front of cold front, cool down, dry, warm up and rain showers in advance of front…rinse, repeat. 

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is probably my favorite video, fast forward to 4 minutes it gets crazy. It was so cold I couldn't feel my hands or feet. Shoutout to @SouthBuffaloSteve as he is just as crazy as I am!

 

Incredible videos, awesome job!  Basically Cat 1 hurricane conditions on the shoreline. 

INSANE at Lake Erie waterfront right now!!!  Full on lean forward and bended knees to stay upright. 

Wind starting to rip near waterfront. Went from calm after squall to sustained high wind. Car violently shaking in Riverworks parking lot. Heading to outer harbor. 

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Let’s goo out here with @SouthBuffaloSteve

Just finishing up at Resurgence, about to head to outer harbor with a little holiday buzz..Looks like a summer squall here right now. 

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Might reopen my pool early this year.

 

Yeah, except for a couple quick hitting cool periods it’s looking quite mild as far as they eye can see on modeling. Was hoping for a turn in time for Christmas but that’s looking less likely IMO. 

10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

That juicy area over MI is gonna slide well south and west of us.  We’re getting the scraps.  Our chance to overachieve will be if that lake band can get together at all tonight.  

Thought the same when I just checked the radar. Glad you said it first!  

1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

And the St. Lawrence river valley. This active pattern is great for that region.

That area (Quebec City) and more so the area west of there (where moose probably outnumber people) fascinates me in terms of winter weather. Never spent time there in the winter but seems like the conditions would line up with what most of us hope for all winter. Every time we get a cutter from about now through March there’s enough confluence there to almost always keep it snow. They get big snows from both overrunning and bombing storms. While we drizzle and mud up with boundaries close by they get days of blue skies with deep snowpack. Funny thing is it’s not all that much higher latitude for such a notable change in sensible winter weather. Same deal though in reverse. D.C. isn’t that much lower latitude than here yet our winters are notably snowier/colder. 

46 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Not a word about rain in the AFD, point and click, or by any local TV Mets. Guess that warm lake influenced air just pushed inland more than expected as I’m a couple miles from the lake. It’s in the upper 30s from the Angola Lakeshore down the Chautauqua shoreline to Ripley to Erie,PA. 

Very interesting. Stayed snow here all day so far, just the few extra miles away from the lake made the difference. Big fat dendrites pouring down now. 

Nice little light snow here this morning with about an inch OTG from last night. 

Chased the snow a bit this afternoon into southern Erie County. Nice snowy afternoon down there. Didn’t run into anything too heavy but it was a solid moderate snow. About 3” OTG where I hiked in East Concord. 

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Well Euro still has it..

 

Figured it would have lost it with the next run but there it is again. That first run was the kind of evolution you sketch out on paper as the “dream” storm for BUF-SYR. Bombing low in Delaware Bay that moves N/NW to near Ottawa. Still too far out to get excited but makes the next few model runs interesting. 

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

11% positivity rate in Erie county the most daily cases since the pandemic started.

Wow, I knew the numbers were going up but that’s a shocker. 

It’s been “real” snowing here for about 45 minutes. About to hit the first inch of the season. 

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Have you been up in the high peaks during a snowstorm? Wind speeds above 4K feet on open summits can be well over 100 mph with whiteout conditions. The strongest winds I’ve ever felt were on top of a high peak in February of 2019, had to be 90 mph. You’ll never see snowfall rates in the adk like you’ll see in a strong band off the tug but temps are insanely cold at the summits, and wind speeds are insane. The scariest part is getting stuck up there in a bad storm, many times 7-8 mile walk back to the car. 

I did a solo hike of Wright Peak about 5 years ago in mid February. Not smart…Wasn’t a particularly stormy day. But once above tree line winds were over 75 mph with near zero visibility. Got disoriented and left my backpack near a cairn in bid to make the summit (hiked so far to get there how could I turn back?). Dumb. Made it down but looking back did a lot of things wrong and could have really gone sideways. Entirely different world in the High Peaks in wintertime. 

Did a front or something appear out of nowhere this afternoon. Forecast was mostly sunny as of noon while clouds rolled in and rain started to fall. No mention of anything but dry/sun in BUF forecast discussion. Pretty impressive forecast bust. 

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This video is insane...

 

 

Incredible but terribly tragic. Have to think everyone they passed didn’t make it out. 

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Then was everyone else so much colder? Every site around it at 7am was 6 to 7 degrees colder.

Possible warming from the lake at play this morning?  It’s going to keep areas within 10 or so miles a lot milder for a while as I expect lake temp is still in upper 60’s. 

4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Here comes tonight round.  Been hearing them rumble for a bit now. 

Nice work with the King City radar.  Wasn’t expecting another cluster to move through so soon after the batch of rain this evening.  Thunder getting louder here now.