pazzo83
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Everything posted by pazzo83
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i mean there is some statistical validity to saying "we're due" - absolutely.
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that's a great point - I guess you'd model it on some sort of distribution related to the exponential (beta maybe?)?
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yeah it's tough. Even going on a year interval, DC snowfall has a ton of year-to-year variance given its location. Another interesting thing to look at would be to see the frequency of 3"+, 6"+ and 12"+ events per year.
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yep this is what I was always taught - you need a sample size of around 30. I think it's interesting the median is decreasing but the std deviation is increasing. That would suggest that while overall snowfall is trending down just a bit, we are dealing with more all or nothing type scenarios (which would make sense if we are dealing with an underlying state of bigger storms but a warming atmosphere (meaning generally less snow here)).
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lol
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Got down to about 6F here in Tenleytown. I was in Staunton over Christmas where we were around 0F for Christmas Eve. Some of my family opted to do a morning run - I decided to wait until it was a bit warmer (like 10F).
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Almost below freezing now at that Marion, OH station
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it doesn't seem like that'll be an issue - it's torching rn. 55F at DCA and 53F here up in Tenley.
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With this rain, I did just hit 50" of precip on the year.
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41F with about 0.55" of rain. Gross.
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well technically a small part of it is in Philadelphia County (coterminous with the city) but it is owned by the City of Philadelphia. Weird arrangement lol.
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34/27 near DC's highest point.
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34/25 in Tenleytown, 36/27 at DCA.
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does this suggest the Niña is breaking down?
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yeah the timing is just about perfect for that.
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lol the 3:55pm ob was just like - yeah not gonna get this one.
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good god this is KDEN
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only days that end in -y of course.
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I agree with you wrt the uncertainty given the short timeframe here with respect to inferring causality. Obviously the climate is warming, but has there been some profound change in that base state since like 2016/2017 or is there some other temporary phenomenon at play. If this is still happening as we approach the late 2020s (or it's getting worse), then I think we'll have something more concrete to work with.
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I know the more urbanized parts of the metro (DC/Arlington/Alexandria) are not representative of most folks here, but the warning signs are there. I mean it basically doesn't get below 20F without some severe shot of Arctic air (like what is coming this weekend). Frankly without some reinforcing shot of cold air, it struggles to get into the upper 20s. For the most part, most of the winter (at least over the past few years), DC stays above freezing, even at night.
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I mean this "arctic shot" is likely gonna put DC only in the mid-upper teens. These cold shots have been moderating, at least for the east coast, quite profoundly over the past few years.
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this is the type of thing I'd expect with a climate going haywire. Should be an interesting day
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In terms of the cold, people are talking up some days with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s? That used to be routine... I do get that the worst of the cold will be well to our west (again), but still.
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It just seems like it's difficult for the urban areas from NYC southward (maybe even BOS these days) to get that cold absent a real fresh shot of arctic air (that is usually fleeting). It wasn't exactly balmy today (NYC high of 44, DCA 50), but NYC is around 36 now at 1am, and DCA is at 41. Here in Tenleytown we've basically been stuck around 38-39 for the past several hours. Most nights, we stay above freezing.
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very nice
