pazzo83
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Everything posted by pazzo83
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lol I lived in Staunton from 1991-2002 (and then 4 years in C'ville after that) and my parents still live there, but ok. In 1994 we got down to -15F in town, on a day that only barely got above zero. 1996 had a similar cold snap. Night time temps in the teens were common from Dec - late Feb. Even this year's Christmas cold snap would've yielded below-zero temps in town years ago - instead it was right around zero.
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It's even more pronounced for cities closer to the coast. I feel like NYC has barely gotten below freezing at all this season (aside from the brief Christmas cold snap).
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20-30 years ago, nighttime temps in the teens were routine there. Now with a pretty good airmass in mid Jan and optimal cooling conditions, you're stuck in the 20s. That translates for the urban areas that used to get into the 20s now stuck above freezing even overnight. It's a major problem (if you like snow).
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lol and the urban core is 38-41F at 10pm in mid January. It's just not what it was....
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this subforum handles the disappointment remarkably well. the meltdowns I remember from the NYC forum were ridiculous (which is probably why we see some NYC-area posters here).
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i'd kill to be in Sierras rn. I can't even fathom the quantity of snow they are getting.
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Exact same here (29.5).
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I think we'll get sub 32 here in upper NW DC overnight tonight. But DCA might not - still hanging in the upper 30s.
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Yeah I lived in NYC from 2010-2018, and really there was one bad winter in that stretch (in terms of little snow) - 2011-12. 15/16 would've been bad had it not been for the January storm that year (and the fluke -1F reading on Valentine's day, possibly the last time Manhattan will ever dip below zero lol). But yeah it's been a struggle here.
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Frankly, I think this best captures the snow-lover's dilemma in this area - for the most part, we are f'd. The base state is becoming increasingly hostile to non-negligible likelihood significant snow events.
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Temp and dewpoint rising here in Tenley - 65/58 right now.
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i wouldn't be surprised if we hold in the low-mid 60s tonight.
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We had temps in the 80s in January (in the Shenandoah Valley) that year.
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I feel like NYC did that over approximately that period back in 2011. It was pretty epic.
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mid 50s at midnight on Dec 30/31. Sure.
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40F for the low here
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Some pretty wild local microclimate stuff going on rn: I'm at 45F in Tenleytown, a couple blocks off of Wisc Ave (so close enough to feel some effect from that built environment). It's in the mid-upper 30s just a few blocks away (further into AU Park). It's 37 at DCA.
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River is def f'ing with DCA obs rn. I'm at 46F in Tenleytown, DCA down to 39F.
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isn't your independent variable here time, so that is what you are using to try to explain the variance in your observed data (snowfall)? Let's ignore the fact that running a simple linear regression on a time series, especially when there is a cyclical component here (thus the observations are not all IID), is problematic. But if you are trying to see if a warming base state would be used, you'd think you'd include something reflecting that in your analysis (and not just time).
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you can't just run a simple linear regression on this time series because the observations aren't IID (independent and identically distributed), so your raw R-squared value isn't really useful. We know that snowfall here is cyclical.
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Don S was showing similar data regarding NYC.
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i caught the third period - didn't seem like the Rangers even had any good chances.
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Folks have tried to show you this is just objectively false in a variety of ways.
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that's true - once your sample size is big enough.
