tnweathernut

It doesn’t make sense for the setup we have. I would think it’s likely wrong, but living where I live I never feel totally comfortable until the event has passed.

It’s been a thorn for a couple of days now….. good test of it coming up. It’s definitely on an island. Hope the rest of the 18z models don’t follow.

Thanks for mentioning surface conditions. Just checking the radar to the NAM, precip is breaking out faster than modeled. For everyone following, this is typical in overrunning situations. We can almost discard the globals at this point and go to the short range models. Even beyond that it's time to compare the actual surface to see if those short range models are initializing correct. Good luck everyone, hope the overrunning shield is a bit more robust than models indicate and hope we can keep any thermal issues down for those along the west side of the apps and especially for our brothers and sisters down toward Chattanooga.

I never thought I’d live long enough to see it……. lol

Thanks, that makes sense. Good to see your Jayhawks get the train back on the tracks today.

We haven't discussed this much, but where does the FV3 fit into the equation? I honestly have NO clue.

I agree this is the setup where most should score with little harm from thermal layers off a setup we have waited for ...... for a LONG time. It's not like we have a wrapped up negative tilt system coming at us. What do you think about the modeling consistently showing a warm nose/downslope up the western side of the apps into NE TN? I don't want to assume, but would guess you think this is overdone, solely based on the setup?

RGEM gives southwest NC 1.2 inches of QPF. NAM gives at most .4 Pretty crazy difference

I thought the RGEM and Euro both popped a less side low in SW NC. I figured this was the root cause of thermals getting screwed up in NE TN.

Yeah, you are correct. I shouldn’t discount that possibility. From a progression standpoint front end stuff can happen before a changeover.

FWIW. That one at the end of the run (if you look at 500) has no chance to be wintry….. should cut straight to the Midwest. Would make sense we relax after the next week.

Euro is trolling us at this point. This system and the next. Poof. lol

I feel attacked here……. lol

I'm not sure who remembers AM Weather (really showing my age), but it was primarily an agricultural/aviation weather program I'd watch before school every morning in the winter time. This map is a fancy version of what you'd see on that program. I like it because it's old school. lol

That was my understanding, but I'm not sure what lead time the person was talking about. If it was less than 24-36 hours that's a lot different than NAM had it nailed from 84.

Yesterday, I was reading some on another forum covering the Chicago snow (can’t remember where I saw it), but was talking about the NAM being the only one not on board with a major snow). It ended up beating all the other models. It’s interesting because our system is projected so much further north than other modeling on the NAM. If it continues to stay north, will be fascinating to see if it can score a similar victory. I will say I have seen numerous overrunning setups in the past be further north and/or have that SW to NE trajectory vs the WSW to ENE trajectory once it starts developing. The good thing is, we don’t have to wait too much longer to find out.

Those snow weenies in the mid Atlantic forum might be about to lose their minds seeing this thing just roll out to sea on the GFS.

0z GFS really does complete the picture by giving everyone in TN something to cheer for. I see you Chattanooga with those 5 kuchera inches…….

Pretty normal oscillations happening, IMO. In the overall scheme of things we see models waffling back and forth about 75-100 miles. Probably not unreasonable. We can all hope the overrunning is a bit more robust when we get to game time.

It shouldn’t be, but I have learned to never discount it completely.

The ICON seems to be putting less emphasis on the low in the Atlantic and more on the low in the gulf. I don’t think it really matters as it relates to the overrunning which spreads across the state, but I did find it interesting.

Agree. I was waiting for the heavier snow bands on the icon to pivot through NE TN. For some reason they just dissipate. Not likely, but I suppose it could have been downslope aided.

ICON spreading the overrunning love here at 0z

Long duration event in east TN. Likely 2-3 more hours of snow left to go past 84

At least there’s a model for everyone in the state tonight….