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There's a reason basically no one lives there. And also why we have things like, you know, heat. People do live in Fairbanks which can wind up with entire weeks below -40 day and night. But it's not windy, so I guess it doesn't count.

By midweek it will be congrats RDU or ILM, probably.

06Z GFS giveth, 12Z GFS taketh away.

-SN near Porter Sq looks nice outside.

KBOS METARS tell the story: KBOS 042354Z 30017G32KT 10SM -SN SCT033 BKN049 OVC070 M02/M11 KBOS 050054Z 29026G47KT 10SM FEW060 M03/M21 A3012 KBOS 050154Z 31018G34KT 10SM FEW060 M04/M19 A3015 Squall comes through, dewpoint drops from 12˚F to -6˚F with the 47KT gusts, and then rises as it slackens off a bit. I live under the departure path for RWY 33 and can't really tell if the noise I'm hearing is the wind or the aircraft. It's a mixture of both.

Congrats Nova Scotia on that run.

999 over ACK.

Amateur! I'm hiking Washington in shorts, a t-shirt and crocs. What could go wrong? An aside: in Jan 2015 I ran up Mount Madison in a t-shirt, xc ski tights (basically yoga pants) and trail runners (with microspikes), a puffy jacket in reserve and some water. Of course, I had looked at the sky and read the forecast (this was the storm a couple days before "Bomogenesis, baby" which had a sharp cutoff in CNE; from the summit the view south was dark clouds behind Washington, the view north was blue skies over Quebec, about 25°, basically calm winds). I was also meeting up with AMC staff who had a radio and keys to the hut should anything have gone awry. The Valley Way is so much nicer when it's a packed out snowy inclined plane instead of a jumble of boulders. Three weeks later Kate Mastrodova was all geared up for a day no one should have been on the summits: 5 and windy in the valley should be a good enough sign; -35 and blowing 120 on the summit is not really survivable.

To be fair … if the current Euro op verified it would probably mean the coldest December since 1989. Nothing over 40 at KBOS, more time below 20 than above 30, average around 23 (monthly climo is 34, first half of the month is 37). Dry, would probably mean some dry snowmaking ponds but some very happy ski areas (especially if the atmosphere could squeeze out some natural snow. GFS had it warmer out in clown range, and clown range doesn't hit Grinch Range anyway but we have to factor in 57° on xmas.

Per Google Maps traffic the RA/SN line is basically Newburyport-Woburn-Natick-Hopkinton under some heavy banding. Grass shows white in the median on Route 2 east of 128, just up the road at 128 and Route 3 in Burlington it looks snowcovered. Tight gradient, perhaps a bit SE than advertised. Could be some nasty driving during the evening commute since media/BOX may have undersold the event. And all of this during peak sun angle, too!

Just wait, it's only 0800, the sun angle will start the melt going any second.

-SN in Cambridge, probably a remnant from that band of OES showing up on radar off of LIS. The Good Storms start with OES on the South Shore from the ENE, not a line up RI from the south (I'm not sure I've ever seen that before)

1/18/15: the last warm storm of the season. Started as ZR in NH (was was XC skiing in Jackson and it had been around 0 overnight, ZR started around 15, I came down a hill coated in ice; can't imagine it was much of a day at the downhill areas either), valley didn't scour out until mid-afternoon (I went skiing in the zr because it seemed preferable to driving in it) and eventually left once the temperature had gone above 32. The carnage on Route 16 was impressive, I saw the first spinout within the first mile, asked the trooper there if the roads were safe and he said "well, they're safe now." That was the last time it was above freezing up there for two months.

There was a storm about 8 years ago (ish, I can remember where I was living) where I said "make sure to clear off your cars because whatever slop is on them after the storm is going to freeze real solid." And it did.

They stole a lot of UI from TT. It's much better, I still prefer TT, but PWx has the Euro so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah looks like a significantly BN start to the month at least. Get the ground nice and frozen for the grinch.

Watch the NAM bring SN to ACK for the 12Z run.

From the BOX AFD: The timing of this system (largely during the day) doesn`t bode well for snow chances in the low elevations. I guess they're looking only at the time of day and not, like, the time of year?

Is it Morch already?

Especially the case from Stowe north to Jay. A bit less so for southern resorts.

I'm traveling for a week starting 12/6 so if there is going to be some epic winter, plan on it that week. (If I'm very lucky, it will be epic enough to bury BOS and/or EWR and it won't make sense for us to make the trip, but I'm not holding out that much hope.)

The ski areas, at least those with enough water, have to be salivating a that OP run. Put down enough of a base that even the Grinch can't steal it.

Oh we already know

The Euro op is close to as bad as possible for holiday traffic. Basically wipes Saturday off the map for the entire northeast from DC north, hitting all the airports and roads. Maybe a bunch of people who would normally have traveled on Saturday don't, so the plows can still get out (because once a traffic jam occurs and people stall out, everyone is stuck) but that means adding a lot of volume on Sunday when the roadways are already over capacity. Backups on the Pike and in Connecticut would be epic. (This guy is glad to have train tickets back from Philly on Friday …)

KBOS finally broke the dam … 32˚ for several hours, after the 5th 34˚ reading yesterday morning (and a 33˚) this month. 15 days after normal. Month now running more than 1˚ below normal. Congrats to the airport (I think the rest of the city has been well below freezing since I nearly fell on my behind the other day.)