roardog

Developing El Niño next year? Wet summer coming?

This could be the earliest reference to sun angle on record. If your location can’t handle a late January sun angle, you’re pretty much screwed. lol

That map is mean sea level pressure for 3 months. That almost seems useless to me. lol

How much later do the leaves come out there in the spring compared to inland areas?

All these theories work until they don’t. Remember all the high latitude blocking due to low sea ice theory? That didn’t work out too well either.

What I hate is a snowfall that starts with a surface temp above freezing. It always feels like a good portion of the snow that falls gets wasted as it melts at first. Surface temps in the mid 20s seem like a good starting point. The flakes usually aren’t the consistency of dust and it all accumulates as soon as it starts to fall.

Wrong month. lol

It was a different type of summer around here than what we’ve become used to the last few years. A lot more days with lower dew points allowing cooler nights. It seemed like we were never going to have summer dew points below 60 again after the last few years.

It definitely gets easier this time of year when the sun goes down so much earlier. Over here the sun doesn’t set until 9:20 in June so when it’s hot outside, I’m usually in bed by the time it really starts to cool down. lol

Except that it actually doesn’t predict that. It has the entire east coast with slightly above normal temps. It’s also not a winter forecast, it’s a Nov-Mar forecast.

There’s a difference between a top ten warmest summer from consistently high dew points causing the overnight lows to stay above average and a top ten warmest summer from extreme afternoon highs. Around here, I can have a well above normal summer mean from having lows around 70 and highs in the mid 80s, which we’ve seen a lot of in the last decade. That’s hardly newsworthy. It also helps that top ten warmest or coldest in the summer takes a much smaller departure from average than the winter.

You guys will be glad to know that the Weatherbell prelim Nov-Mar forecast has the entire East Coast between normal and +1 for temperatures with an emphasis on a colder December.

It's great that Will takes the time to do this. His method is very reliable too. There's been a lot of years where someone will try to argue against his method early in the Summer but in the end his method always does a great job and proves the naysayers wrong.

I don’t think anything exciting ever comes from a warm to the north and cool to the south pattern.

2 months ago you said strong Nino. lol

I was thinking a couple days ago how it feels like it’s been unusually windy for this time of year. More wind coming on Thursday with the heat.

I can’t remember if you guys had the derecho in mid July ‘95 or if it went north of you but that day that the derecho hit here, it was 97 before it hit and I can remember what it was like with no power for a couple of days after that.

Speaking of high dew points. I can remember a day sometime in the mid 2000s where we had dew points around 80 all day along with a completely overcast sky. Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s with dew points around 80 all day with literally no sun. Low clouds socked in all day. I can’t remember too many days where it was that warm with no sun.

Best climo?

There’s been plenty of 70+ degree dew points in Michigan in June. Maybe not upper 70s but that’s tough to do any month this far from the Gulf of Mexico. I know we had dew points well into the 70s in June 2020 before the severe storms, I think around June 8th?, 10th? Sometime around then. That day had 70+ dew points up to Gaylord.

I had a couple inches of snow in the yard this morning and there were icicles hanging from the house around noon. I’m not sure I ever remember seeing icicles hanging from a house around here at noon this late in the Spring. Typically if it does snow this late, it’s usually well on the way to melting by noon. People are worried about Sun angle in February. How about a mid August sun angle? lol

How much “old” snow do you still have?

The last real widespread below normal Summer month I can remember is August 2017. Has there even been any since?

98-99,99-00,00-01

We always had WGN on our cable provider around here. Tom Skilling was the only good source for getting an idea on how the medium/long range looked. Even though it was obviously Chicago based, Tom would talk about possible pattern changes two weeks out. You weren't getting that information anywhere else. The NWS forecast was always biased toward climo. Tom would be the only met daring enough to do something like put a temperature 20 degrees below/above normal on a 7 day forecast. This was great information before the days of the internet with all the model data available. I was always disappointed when Tom would be on a 2 week vacation and Jim Ramsey was filling in. Not that Jim Ramsey was bad but he was no Tom Skilling. lol