roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.
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Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.
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You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak.
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It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.
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Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST.
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I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August.
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CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile.
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1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually.
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Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December.
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Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype.
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I see it now. The moderate Nino starts with ‘09. I guess I was confused there for a minute. lol
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Since when was ‘72 a moderate Nino?
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I’m still confused about the coming strong MJO wave that keeps showing up in tweets. I still don’t see anything indicating that. Any previous model runs that had a decent MJO are back to nothing again.
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I’ve been looking at CDAS and it looks like the southern hemisphere is on fire toward Antarctica. That area is probably a large portion of the extreme global warmth right now. Obviously the sea ice down there is very low too.
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This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is?
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Cyclical or Natural Predictable Climate Change Forum
roardog replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Phoenix had a “cool” June so I wonder if that plays a role somewhat. Does that help delay the moisture from the monsoon a little which in turns allows it to get a bit hotter now in late July? I’m not terribly familiar with the desert SW climate so it’s just something I was thinking about. -
At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that.
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This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol
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I was just going to ask where this talk of a major MJO wave keeps coming from. I’ve seen nothing other than the weeklies which have been less than stellar to say the least.
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At least he’s banned from your sub forum. lol
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Yeah. We should stick to posting fantasy model runs showing 3.4 peaking at 3C in 5 months instead.
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Yeah. So it kind of ties in with the RONI.
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Last year the MEI was indicative of a stronger Nina than what the ONI showed. Maybe the MEI is a better indicator than ONI in the current climate.
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Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March… I haven’t posted anything even close to that. I’ve posted about how the CFS continues to forecast 1+2 to begin dropping rapidly which seems to defy the current subsurface conditions.
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Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.
