roardog

Some of these indexes are derived from such a small area that it doesn’t always tell the whole story.

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern?

Must be heading below the neckline now.

Maybe we’ve peaked?

Or it could be that the models are confused by the competing influences and therefore the mean is depicted the way it is. I guess we would have to see individual members to determine that.

The winter of 13-14 was a very cold winter over here in the Midwest. I believe northern Minnesota ended up colder than 76-77. Although this was 10 years ago, I think it shows that if you get the pattern to support it, it will still get very cold. Even last winter, parts of North Dakota were several degrees below normal for the winter. That’s a bitter cold winter for an area that’s already cold on average. The issue in recent years around here and east to where you guys are is really all about the tropical forcing. Is that due to climate change, a natural cycle or a combination of both? It makes you feel like the WPAC warm pool is due to climate change but it also wouldn’t completely surprise me if it reverses in some fashion at some point.

I mean region 4 is something like +1.1 or +1.2. How can this not be considered a basin wide Nino right now?

A little off topic but when I visited Key West years ago the traffic was horrendous. I don’t know if it was because it was the middle of winter so there were more people there or if it’s always like that.

Snowman19’s head will explode if we peak at 2.0 and have an outcome like the models are suggesting. He’ll have to quickly move on to forecasting a super Nina next year. lol

You keep talking about the -SOI but in reality it’s only -9 on the 30 day and -6 on the 90 day. That’s not exactly an indication of a super Nino. It’s barely even in “Nino” territory. I would say those numbers represent a weak Nino more than anything. This along with the MEI and RONI is showing how our warmed planet is making it more difficult than it already was to forecast long range imo.

Wasn’t 18-19 a Nino? The two previous winters were Nina I believe.

1+2 under 3.0 for the first time since June I believe

Yeah but you wouldn’t expect that type of pattern in an east based Nino in December. If it was due to the strong -PDO, should we take that into consideration this year?

What caused the unusual December of ‘72 pattern? It didn’t look anything like a Nino let alone a super Nino.

It’s been pretty much the same story most of the year.

But yet you use it for MJO forecasts. Hmm.

That’s it. It’s over. Time for you to start looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Only 6 months till spring.

Why do you believe the MJO wave is going to strongly propagate into the Pacific?

I don’t know. If we’re relying on the CFS to tell us a strong MJO is coming later in September, I’d be putting up caution flags. We’ve been down that road and it isn’t a great road to be down. JB kept using the CFS MJO forecast last winter to show the MJO was going to move strongly into 8 and 1. We all know how that turned out. The euro has it going back into the circle after coming out in 4 for awhile.

Is it going to stay that far east though? The pattern coming up for the first half of September seems to indicate the forcing will be more to the west with the Nina like pattern.

Maybe it will rotate into those phases but that’s not what the models are forecasting for early in the month. Of course the models could also be wrong since we are talking a couple of weeks out.

It looks like the MJO might finally make a move. It looks like it might make a move into the maritime continent phases. I know Bluewave has been talking about a Nina like pattern for early September. The MJO moving into those phases would support that. I wouldn’t expect a lot of extreme negative SOI days during this time either if this pattern comes to fruition.

I’ve read that it’s theorized that major high latitude eruptions can lead to -AO/NAO while the low latitude eruptions often lead to +AO/NAO. Of course we’ve also all heard the theory about low sea ice leading to high latitude blocking and that hasn’t been working out too well in the last decade.

Look, the only person around here that knows for sure what will happen this winter is snowman19. Just follow his lead and you’re sure to win. It looks like you already are. lol

I like how there’s so many mixed signals and differing opinions this year. In 2015 at this time you knew a super Nino was coming. As an enthusiast of this stuff, I find this year more interesting.