roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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I was born in the 1970s and I can tell you that other than the slight year to year variation, both peak fall colors and spring leaf out has changed very little. There were always a lot of leaves on the ground on Halloween night when I was a kid, the same as it is now. Palm dude probably used to run his snow maker in August in the ‘90s because it used to be cold back then.
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Warm season drought is so dependent on convection that you can have a severe drought 50 miles away from flooding.
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So in this thread, we have Bluewave pointing out how we have/had a La Niña like atmospheric response, meanwhile Snowman19 is posting tweets that say we have an atmospheric response of a well coupled El Niño. Talk about conflicting and completely opposite opinions. lol
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The CFS isn't mine. I don't run it. However, the CFS actually seems to have the right general idea with 1+2, it just cooled it too much, too soon. I think it was down to +2.0 on yesterday's update.
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This forecast isn't looking great right now.
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I thought everyone knew by now that the long range models are terrible with 2M temp anomalies. Canada was “scorching” in 09-10 yet most of the US had a cold winter.
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The map in his tweet says Coral Reef Watch in the bottom right corner. lol
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Even the warm Coral Reef Watch that you like to show only has it at +1.74 as of yesterday. OISST hasn't been updating but it's most likely lower than that.
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1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts.
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I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually?
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I guess if weak averages -7 and strong averages -8, there isn’t a whole lot of value in this measurement when it comes to seasonal forecasting.
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I didn’t say I disagreed with any of it.
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I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol
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A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.
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Calling it massive might be a little bit of exaggeration.
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Isn’t there also a lag when it comes to Enso impacting North America?
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How about we just build snowcover in Canada this year and see how that works out.
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That composite looks like it has a low west of Alaska while the current look has a huge Nina like ridge.
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In that case, I guess we shouldn’t even consider your opinion and just stick to the numerous meteorologists that post in this thread.
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But there were higher heights in the west with no SE ridge so there’s still only certain aspects that are Nina like. Still seems to be a forcing battle going on.
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When it comes down to it, the only metric showing a strong Nino is the ONI. Every other metric would have you believe this is a weak to moderate Nino. Even the long streak of negative SOI only has the 90 day average at -11 so while the streak is impressive, the average is not in “strong Nino” territory. The underlying ocean warming has to be playing a role in distorting( if that’s the right word I’m looking for) the look of this event.
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It seems silly to have U.P. counties that have a 6 inch criteria bordering counties with an 8 inch criteria. That is unnecessarily confusing in my opinion.
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It’s updated on Cyclonicwx. It’s at 1.69 today.
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It’s the tweet you posted. lol
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My point is that if it advances rapidly at the end of the month like Judah hints at, you would want it to start low.
