Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back
Maestrobjwa replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thought that was Michael Jackson's mother at first, lol -
I looked back...since 1966 a big blast only happened ever other super niño (65-65, 82-83, 15-16). The others (72-73, 97-98)...nope! 72-73 was particularly brutal because we just had back-to-back ninas in the two years prior. Then the super niño torched and spawned two MORE ninas! No wonder the early to mid-70s looked the way they did, lol
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Thankfully the Spring unpredictability barrier for enso is just starting, lol I'm telling you, if we get an overwhelming niño that torches all the way through, and then spawns two more ninas (like the last two did), SO HELP ME! That would be a nightmare scenario, tbh
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Good article on the current enso predictions, and also has some great "ENSO for dummies" info for us laymen https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-event-forecast-2023-2024-global-weather-impact-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
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Man even if we shiver Easter morning (that'd be kinda cool actually) I'm willing to watch it's downfall out of pure spite, lol
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I thought folks callin' ya a Deb was more because of what's now in the "Will it ever snow again?" thread, as opposed to what's happened just this season?
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Weenie discretion is advised
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Man I'm already 70% there! I mean one eye on mid-month but after that...enso trackin' season!
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Either a battle or a treaty to link up and screw us Dec 2022 style, lol
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Oh yeah my apologies! I was completely oblivious to what had happened there--I just saw her up there as "newest member" and was wondering what was going on (thought she'd been hacked or something, lol)
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Unrelated: Did you leave the forum and then rejoin? Lol
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Let's wait until Friday to see if it makes it to Monday
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Let me ask ya something...why the frickle does it take 30 years every time?
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I mean for me I was never fully invested and it did concern me a bit how rock steady the GFS was with it's solution. I was out once the 18z eps ticked north yesterday...and given the pattern ya kinda knew it would be tough after that.
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And now we have the case-in-point right here, lol
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Yep! I figured we'd be all green by 0z or earlier today...called it, lol Alright let's wait until Saturday to see how long something 7 days out will make it
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I think that was more of a concern that coming NW this time would start a trend of further and further that way.
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Hold ooonnnnnn Hold onnnnnnnn Keep your eyes on the.... Whoops, sorry. Couldn't resist, lol
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Oh yeah I hear ya. Not saying it def is wrong...just that the track record of it vs. the world hasn't been great this winter. But then again we can't trust anything to be good this winter...so there is that, lol
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But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol
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Sounds like a question for a GFSologist
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Tick, tick, north...Wouldn't surprise me if we're in the gray area by 0z (or earlier) tomorrow, lol (I'd love to be wrong, of course)
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Always value in letting the run finish first
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Can't remember the last time the ICON went nuclear like that (given it was born during our snow drought this may be one of maybe...3 times )
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I can't remember the exact day...but wasn't there another weekend "threat" that made it all the way to Tuesday? (I feel like it was late Jan or earlier this month)
