Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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-NAO looks to relax somewhat around the 15th-18th period on both the gefs and the eps. Would love to time that up with a more neutral PNA. Thinkin' about that chart DonSutherland1 shared the other day. Had some hits with the PNA just below or just above neutral! Of course, we need other details to get right, of course...but that would be a good start!
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He was clearly trying his hardest not to say it was dumb, lol See Harbs is a good dude and loyal to his friends...but unfortunately, to a fault sometimes! Man I hope he can muster up the courage to do what we did in 2012. Cam Cameron was a good friend of his too...but he did it!
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Speaking of H5...Are there any sites with any guides on how to read that?
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I'd only take that if we could get a Jan 2016 redux, lol That's literally the only reason I have a SLIGHTLY positive association with Christmas 2015 because of what happened later, lol
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Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start)
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That's a nice-sized yard!
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Yep--day after the first Avatar came out, and Mappy's wedding, lol
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I'm learning more and more that at this range all you wanna look for is what's happening up top. Had a gut feeling about that timeframe (either that or I'm biased because I'd love a Dec 2009 redux), but for right now we just wanna see if we can get the better pattern first! 18z gefs seemed to show some improvement.
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Agreed. Cannot see how a Roman offense goes deep in the playoffs. C'mon Harbs...he said back in 2013 that firing Cam Cameron was the hardest thing he ever had to do as a coach. But c'mon you HAVE to do the same here!
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For the life of me I don't know why we won that game, lolol But I am happy we did! Sometimes wins like that mean something later on...but we shall see
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But dang it I needed Bam Knight to score there, lol
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Now to see if it moves up in time...
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Nice thread on the -NAO and PV
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Very good, lol And so very true!
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I know I get the weenie tag for saying "Does a niño still work", but this is why I am genuinely curious about what will happen in our next legit niño (2018/19 is hard for me to count because it was a bit of a wimp strength-wise). To see just what those look like with where we are now climate-wise.
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Even to my amateur eyes that -NAO...at least what we've seen so far, seems like it wants to be pretty stout. Not like it's been kinda tepid/neutral. Even in the models showing the pac not being as good, the -NAO is still going strong. Now of course...that's this month so we'll have to see.
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Yes this is what makes it more difficult discern just based on snowfall totals. And the question has always been what the difference is between say a mediocre run in the 50s by nature of said variability, vs a mediocre run today. Climo vs climate, lol
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Do ya think we first started to "lose on the margins" around in the 90s? Or perhaps just the last decade as psu alluded to?
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Perhaps when you have time you could put together some comparisons of particular storms before the last 10 years where a marginal setup worked as opposed to now (maybe such a comparison might be too tedious though, lol But I would love to see some type of comparison)
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And the PV is kinda like this jello where you smahs it and you can't quite predict which part of it is gonna split where? (Maybe not the best analogy, but ya probably get my drift). Noticed that when we got a little unlucky in 2020-21 when the dang thing split into Texas, lol
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Whoops. I think I tried to hard to say something productive just to say it...y'all got me wanting to prove myself now
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Nice article about the current nina and upcoming nino https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-cold-enso-2022-el-nino-event-2023-weather-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/ Basically saying while the Nina is still pretty healthy it likely has peaked. Also noted warming in the western region since October
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Hm...that -PNA persistence could explain why even the Euro/Eps aren't spitting out the pretty looks they were. So I could be wrong about what I posted earlier...still gotta wait and see in future runs if our favorite blue ball in the pac starts reappearing when the run gets to the week of the 11th. For the record: A productive post.
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Not the "only thing"...not even close. Did I not share things earlier? Talk about the what the ensembles were showing? Pattern change and such? I have been making the effort to be more productive and nobody is givin' me credit. But it's kinda whatever. For every nina post I'll make a productive one, how about that?
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Oh yes two winters ago that was just unlucky...that was our solar minimum blocking too, lol We just haven't been able to line up good blocking with other things. Man we better not finally get a modoki next year then have jack diddly for blocking...that would be just dumbdy-dumb
