Maestrobjwa

Try not to fall into the trap of expect TOO much from NWP for some details from a certain range. Said details that make a big difference can't always be seen from 6 days out...Computers are way, way ahead of 1998, but still not at a place where they can say a week out what it will do when you have various shortwave interactions. I think we get starry eyed at a Day 6 bomb and subconsciously expect that to happen. But the change we saw with this storm is normal variability at this range as the models focus in. Rule of thumb for weekend threats: Don't let yourself get invested before Wednesday. I find that's always a line of demarcation for big shifts (and even then...weather still has chaos). That's how I look at it, anyway.

It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses!

Yeah if we're looking at shortwave interactions...I do have to wonder how well the GFS is gonna handle that (no copium here, just wondering given it's jumpiness since the upgrade)

Dang pretty much all rain for the metros this run. Ah well, if this one doesn't work out, at least the upcoming pattern looks more promising!

Should we like...make Wednesday AM the checkpoint for making a thread for a weekend threat? Although it seems this time we may already be close to knowing that this will indeed affect some portion of the subforum at least!

But yet you said it...and I don't quite get that. If it is, it is...why don't we just enjoy tracking this, and if that happens, discuss it later? To me, sometimes it's not about whether something is true, but when ya say it....but this could be me overreacting.

It just amazes me that when we're tracking something, no matter what hour...those panels are missing, haha Reverse extrapolation ftw...

Dang it ICON...it's always the exact panels you need, lolol

Oh wow this is a site history gold mine, lol Thanks for sharing!

Why not just...stay in the present for a moment? No "if we didn't"...we DO have this storm to track. And the 12th/13th is almost 2 weeks away and we wouldn't be able to identify a specific threat right now anyway. Just enjoy now!

TUTTs?

Based on history...this sure smells like one of those 1-3" to rain in cities more n & w to me (not trying to be a Deb though). I mean, we are at the beginning of a favorable pattern change...I wonder it it's a tad early for I-95. But hey, maybe I'm just rambling, lol

How about...not worrying about anything and just watching, brother? Happy New Year

Happy New Year everybody! I thank God for another year to turn the page and start fresh. Looking forward, as the best is yet to come. (Side note: Had no idea John Wesley was the earliest to say that, lol Saw that in a devotional the other day and it was just the message I needed) Blessings all

All ya gotta do is just look at the list of the biggest storms at BWI. Most of the dates were after January 10th! Only exceptions I can remember are 1996 and 2009. Everything else? In that sweet spot, lol

Number. One. Seed and AFC North champions with an exclamation point! But there is still work to do. 2019 ia seared into the back of everybody's minds: and they are determined to do it differently this time. Stay LOCKED IN!

When what one wave does is dependent on another, there's hardly ever a clue this far out. That's why I only looked at the run yesterday for two seconds, lol The usual Wednesday will probably be when we know a bit better.

Happy New Year! (was just wondering whether you still posted here...though I can't blame you for not, lol)

And now it is

Even if we are tracking a close threat, tracking the pattern still has value. Future pattern=better field for potential opportunities. For me that's the value I'm beginning to find in them. You can do both at the same time ya know!

Woooooooowee!!! A one-handed interception followed up by a one-handed TD catch...on 4th & 7, lol INSANE

No Hamilton, no Stephens, no bueno...Gonna have to be the offense' game today!

Personally I don't like playing the "hopefully the wave before goes ape" game because it's seems like a bit of a lower percentage shot...but maybe that's just recency bias since I can't remember the last 50/50 low that aided a storm, lol

For me staying up for the Euro isn't really staying up since most nights I'm up that late anyway, lol

Yeah they were extremely lucky to come out of this with a win. This smelled like the way they usually screw up in the WC or divisional round, lol (Can we forget the time running out a couple years ago? Haha)