Maestrobjwa

Signed, Resident of the middle part of the region

Cold Temps at least give ya a chance for a wintery scene!

Well, depends on how things look large-scale. Now if we get to mid Dec/Jan and the large-scale pattern still looks like a typical nina, then NO--I ain't gonna be payin' too much attention, lol BUT...the potential of a fading nina and and the unknown effect (if any) of the Tunga eruption are enough for me to keep one half an eye open ...at least until we get closer. Still not optimistic, but a little curious.

Yep--hence my retraction, lol And the fact that the tropical season has looked un-nina like to this point is another reason for at least a little skepticism. Maybe something maybe nothing...

Ya know, I never understood what the "x" stood for in wx...found this article in case anybody else was wondering, lol https://meteorologistmark.com/2019/03/31/sunday-story-the-long-history-of-abbrevations/ *Let the record show I made a positive contribution

I'm gonna retract some of what I've said about ninas...weather is not homogenous. Yes enso has tendencies that tend to repeat themselves, but there are no absolutes in weather. Who knows, could pull a reverse and luck into something this winter but not next for all I know. I'm saying this in case something anomalous happens this winter...I'm kinda okay with whatever happens now, tbh. I'm fortunate to have seen what I have when others have not! Gonna just take it as it comes...I do hope I haven't messed up so badly that any genuine questions aren't colored with my history...but I suppose that'll take some time to scrub away.

I am curious to see what if anything this does. Like you said, it could be good or bad...but will be interesting to watch nonetheless. I've been reading that the fact that it's water vapor and not ash is making it a bit of an unknown.

Which part of Loch Raven? Lol

Climo expectations...and yet realizing there are no absolutes in weather either, and 1+1+1 doesn't always equal three. Two dichotomies...

Now I'm guessing part of that had to do with coming off a double-dip nina regime? (hence it still being N stream dominated). But given the year that followed, could you say it was a weird in between as the nina died and the coming nino was just beginning?

Combining weather and fantasy football...that was beautiful man

Now this I'm genuinely curious about (NOT with any expectation it'll do one thing or another, so don't say that, lol) but legit wondering what it'll look like. Strong volcanic eruptions and the weird weather effects I find kinda fascinating (especially after learning about Tambora...man that was something else!) And now this time instead of ash we have...water vapor? Hmm

Listen man I'm sorry--I was way too harsh with my last post. That wasn't fair to come after ya like that--that was completely wrong. Be optimistic, it's a good thing. I respect that and I respect what ya know and I respect you--you're a good 20-25 years older and I oughta be a little more respectful of your insight/wisdom. Ya helped me out with the H5 map last winter and I appreciated that. I'm naturally a little more cynical by nature to a fault...But if ya need to put me on ignore, so be it. I'm kinda done with me too, tbh. I won't be posting much this winter anyway unless it surprises (and even then just straight questions about...whatever is happening on models. I know the deal here now. I'm kinda complained out even if the suck is still gonna be crappy--it happens). 7 years has taught me a lot, and after all my venting...I'm kinda okay with things now--even if in the moment whatever fails we may get will still be disappointing. It kinda is what it is...Besides, all the fails I've seen have shown me how hard it is. Just be happy with what you receive...one of these days I'll learn that. I'll try to be better.

I think history can't be ignored either

Appreciate the sentiment!

Something to consider, sir: Ya ever consider that some of this is not looking to be "talked off the ledge" per se, but merely venting? Think about it: Where else can any of us blow off this particular brand of steam and people actually know what the heck we're talking about (or the obtuse emotions involved, lol). There's literally nowhere else! Now, I get it: you and others may be at a point of acceptance...but, we ain't all there yet. Nor are we all of the "complaining won't change it" mindset either. Mind you those are probably healthier mindsets to some degree...but all the ranting is just a processing of emotion--not hoping somebody says otherwise. I mean we're all lookin' at the same regions, ain't we? Lol But I also get the annoyance with it at times for some...don't wanna hear that all the time. It's a balance... Now personally, believe it or not I'm closer to your position when it comes to this winter at least: get what we get, very low bar (in my case I'll barely track unless things look legit different...which is hard to believe, lol).

Funny thing is, you guys have out-snowed Baltimore since 2016, believe it or not! Lol

I actually cannot at this point...for various reasons I'd rather not go into here. I'm sure saying "just move" is well intentioned, but...everybody's situation is different. So...no choice but to hope for a change...or at least an improvement back to some level of what we used to have!

Did it ever suck this many years, though? I hear the refrain "the city sucks for snow", but I've been living here the entire time and have never seen it be this bad. I mean we always had a good year every 3-4 years or so! What changed? And yes if I could...I kinda like the Cockeysville area. Wouldn't want to be that far from the folks in their later years...but yeah I'd go there or maybe a tad north.

Either that or ignore it altogether, lol The suckage may feel better if we don't track it for days at a time! Hey, maybe we shouldn't even call them "threats" anymore...but "hopes", lol

I see...well, that's unfortunate news, but it helps to hear about this now so I know what to expect. Oof...

Little bit of snow can indeed make nice scenery...and I'm learning to appreciate said scenery snow a bit more. But man...I just feel like the occasional bigger snow we used to get is just being taken away, man. Like just once to have stuff to actually shovel...my 20s and younger had those moments interspersed between the mediocre snows. But it's just all light now, and I miss the warning snows so much, man...snows you could feel to your ankles or higher, steps blanketed, piles on the grass, right now all I got is memories, lol Don't tell me nobody else feels the same?

Lol I'll admit his post made me a bit sad. It would be awful, awful snow luck and a slap in the face after what we've dealt with lately. But listen...if we get to this time next year and it looks like that's happening, I may just quit tracking altogether. Now perhaps in 2024-25 we can try our hand with niño leftovers a la 78-79...if another la nina doesn't form al la 2011...oof. Glad he brought this up...expectations lowered!

Are you both referring to the volcanic eruption? If so...I mean I think I heard that a 1992 nino was ruined by Pinatubo...and if that happens again, that would be horrible snow luck...my goodness. Was the strength of this year's eruption that powerful, though?

I do kinda marvel at those that just enjoy tracking no matter what the final result is! I guess there's the enjoyment of the science/hobby side of it, eh? I know for me if it ain't got a shot at much, chasing the week-to-week, Z to Z model runs don't yield much ROI...in these instances the snow is all a ghost, we know that in our logical brains. Yet in some of our subconscious, we see a pink clown map and say "Hey look we've got snow! Yeeeeee....". Then you're exhausted...then repeat with the next threat, lol