DocATL

I agree with many of you. If we are going to be in a lousy pattern at least let’s have consistent modeling of such. The SER will be a welcomed sight in 3 weeks.

The problem is the models are as bad as the pattern. .

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/1878566394393997370?s=46 .

Baroclinicity gonna trend that northwest with absolute certainty. .

I’m growing accustomed to these nickels and dimes and strangely fond of them. Models, GFS especially, will advertise it a week out, then it trends away only to show back up the night before. .

Overperforming .

Some table scraps today. Moderate rates here in Naperville. Maybe we squeeze out an inch. .

Let’s see what round two brings tomorrow morning

Major sublimation today in full sun. Also some direct good old fashioned melting from the sun. As the clouds roll in there will be some refreezing. Things might be dicey on Monday morning after the arctic front.

It’s all useless outside of 72 hours. At this point maybe it’s better that it shows nothing. .

2.2 inches here east end of Naperville. Never believing the NAM again. The hi res Canadian did a lot better. .

Nickel and diming in Naperville. I mean it’s better than nothing. .

Exactly. No indication for change. .

Patterns persists despite what people see on an ensemble three weeks out and mumbo jumbo about changing trough positions. To top things off the baroclinicity south of us will draw anything synoptic to those areas. It’s all nickel and dime till springtime.

They’re good. Freeze em solid. .

Canadian Hi Res or bust. .

I’d kill for some global warming right now. .

0z NAM went south and east. Looks like a dusting north of I-55 total through Monday for Chicago metro. Widespread 2-2.5 inches for northern Indiana and for you Michigan folks. Wouldn’t be surprised to see other models follow suit. Not our winter. I mean we are disappointed by sub-advisory level snows not coming to fruition. Pretty sad really.

Immensely thankful. You’ve however initiated the southeast trend.

Could definitely see a mega torch in February followed by a a March snowstorm. .

If the Canadian is correct, I’ll stop doom posting for 4 or 5 days.

I’ve thought about this. I may have cursed Chicago. I’ll tell you though, when I was in ATL we had many 11th hour rug pulls. I’m concerned this will be an ice to rain event for them when it was looking like epic snow a few days ago. I think 1-2 inches is a big stretch for Friday anywhere north of I-80. Trace to 0.5 more likely. A virga flizzard. I’d go with the NAM on this. A better than nothing synoptic snow for Detroit, too. EDIT: it looks like I was looking at an older run of the NAM. The 12z looks better.

Great to see. MSP deserves a good thump! .

The grass will be easy to get to at least. .

One heckuva synoptic rain event coming for next weekend per the GFS which means a reprieve from cold and dry. Honestly…that’s improvement. I would worry about ice to our south however with the low level cold from all the snow they’ve had. Unfortunately this system only clears the table for big cold into the plains so we punt the warm up and reset the pattern.