I think you're in a good spot on this, Its going to come down to the front getting far enough east before the disturbance rides the front NE for here, Euro has it timed right that its snows right to the coast.
Euro been quite persistent with the back end snows here on Monday and the GFS as well to some extent, These typically don't work out but this one has more of an over running look to it and not anafrontal.
Models today are amplifying that s/w further SW then some of the other runs which is allowing the low at the surface to track further west, Guess it will ultimately come down to where that ends up happening.
It certainly did at 12z today, But i don't care at this point as we've seen how modeling has gone so far this season, All these full blown cutters that were modeled have went thru the shredder by go time, This weekends is a great example of it.