dryslot
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Everything posted by dryslot
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I wouldn't get to twisted up on the RGEM, Its not done very well although, Its better within the last 24 hrs or so as it catches up to the rest of guidance, But have found outside of that it waffles considerably. -
That's what you want, But it seems like the convection blows up as it moves north.
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Looks like reggie wants to mix the cape on 12z
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A problem, You would want that weaker or not at all, Not looking to be the case.
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That is always the concern with these, Convection more times then not screw it up, Its usually more harm then help as i have found even though it should work the other way too.
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Its clear here, Its gets pulled towards that convection as the model can't reconcile where it wants the SLP, You can see where it would be if that convection wasn't there, But at this point, I'm thinking its real it keeps showing up, But if its not, There are still changes coming.
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It would probably stay more offshore but it would track closer to the cape i would think.
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That is where that slp should be, If you resolve that convection, This would be tracking well west, That's the only thing saving this right now from hugging or just offshore.
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3K a bit better though.
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Always some small nuance to mess up the track of these systems, You get two to go in your favor then your stuck with another.
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Its chasing that convection again, But you can see that ares west of it is where it wants to track
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That s/w is a bit stronger too.
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Yes, 12z Is going to be west of the 06z.
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How long have you been wrestling with that idea? Or do you still have it in a hold, What’s the timing? Have you got that pinned down? How many did you buy? 1-2-3?
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Now i know i'm doomed.
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Clinch Leatherwood shuffle start early?
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The euro has done this since they started with the 06z and 18z runs, I made the comment over a year ago that they were different from the 0z and 12z runs and still are.
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Said no one ever, I don't even consider it.
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It should still have some west tics left though, We've cleared up a couple issues that was sending this east, The s/w rounding the base was weaker yesterday and earlier today on some models but that's amped up on 18z runs and now at 0z.
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GFS mets are uniting.
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Its not until it stops.
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For how this looked at the surface, The qpf looks underdone.
