Better ridging out west, Trough was further SW and a deeper s/w rounding the base of the trough, It was close to blowing up sooner, But that may also come with other problems too for some.
And that's where a whole bunch of these have already gone unless they were sheared out, But i don't see anything to cause that right now, This one is a strong s/w dropping down the backside before it rounds the base of the trough and heads NNE.