dryslot

Tunafish and PWMan will like the 12z GFS

That's a possibility actually.

There's going to be a period of really heavy snow rates for this one.

And just like that, Watches have gone up here. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 1003 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... .Low pressure will redevelop along the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday night and then move northeast off the New England coast Friday into Saturday. MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-033-NHZ001-002-004-150315- /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0008.221216T1200Z-221217T1800Z/ Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Carroll- Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley, Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond, Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin, Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, and Crawford Notch 1003 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations exceeding 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, west central, and western Maine. Portions of northern New Hampshire. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could mix or change to rain closer to the coast. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ HJL

It just finished up running, They will have to send out a search party for Phinn too.

My thoughts FWIW is i think you may be better then what the maps are showing, Its going to be close on the imediate coast, That easterly flow hurts you this time of year.

That gives the look that its either snow or rain and nothing in between.

Some just needed to wait it out, Models always underplay the CAD until closer in.

Surface wise, 12z Nam looks the same as 06z, But its another tic or so colder.

Yeah, Its going to be either or for some down your way or a combination of both for this one.

They may have to change that, This was the wildcard for here in there AFD this morning, If I had to pick an area with the most precip type uncertainty, it would be the interior ME locations from central Cumberland Co through Auburn/Lewiston towards Augusta. This area should receive plenty of QPF, and CAD could keep temps cool enough for wet snow to fall at a good clip...potentially falling on the northern end of an enhanced band from the coastal front. That said, this is a tricky mesoscale feature to pick out at this range and will be determinant on low track.

Bear in mind, This will probably be less then 10:1 ratios for a few of us.

Yes, Looks better for Dave right down towards ORH.

The 06z Euro looked a couple tics colder for the fence sitters.

GYX first map, That looks reasonable.

If things continue which i think will, Now that were getting inside 48hrs on guidance, You should make the trip to pit2.

Been a while, But yeah, This looks much better starting from 18z yesterday, Its ticked colder on all the guidance to give the coastal plain snow and even the coast some as well, Those ticks SE on all guidance now takes the surface low over the cape or just east offshore into the GOM instead of near PWM.

Looking more and more like a paste bomb is on its way up here, All guidance is starting to slow the SLP down as it reaches the GOM for a long duration event.

8" or so would make a good base, This will have some meat to it.

Yes it is Luke.

Add the canadien to the list too.

18z Euro was basically noise at this juncture, I don't see it making any wholesale changes at this point, Not that it usually does when we get this close in, It has ticked colder up here but everything tonight so far at 0z has too.

It had been on the weaker side of guidance up to now.