mappy

the further west you go the better the chances are, obviously. but if precip comes in hot and heavy enough you could put down a 3+ inches before any flip. its going to come down to real time observations, there are so many minute details that will make a big difference on who booms vs who busts.

The potential is there for 5", hence the warning. Will it happen, who knows?

I'm not surprised you got one. It will take longer for Westminster to switch over, if at all, thus you stay snow longer, under heavy rates. Happy for you!

18

lol at using accuweather. LWX has Parkton within 2-3" range.

yall are a trip.

Updated LWX snow map

Indeed. I highly doubt I see 5" out of this. 2-3" sounds reasonable IMBY before a flip. MDZ006-051900- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1500Z-240107T0300Z/ Northern Baltimore- 449 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations up to five inches, and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Northern Baltimore County. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

For Reisterstown 10:1 9” Kuchera 6.6” snow depth 1.6” good luck figuring that out

lol from advisory to above warning level snow

lol the NAM. Never fails to pull the weenies back in under 48hrs from go time. Never. Fails.

This! Enjoy what you get!

It amazes me every winter that someone questions why the NWS issue watches when and why. Watches will usually be issued regardless of an adjustment to a warning, or an advisory. It’s a watch for winter weather ahead in the next couple days, where probably tomorrow will be adjusted to warnings or advisories. Its no different than a severe thunderstorm watch in the summer, where warnings or special weather statements are issued as needed.

snowing!

you're not alone. helps to put him on ignore here too

Oh sorry -- I'm in far northern Baltimore county, about 5 miles south of the PA line. Have some elevation too, which is helpful. 850s aren't too much of an issue, but the surface will be the issue. Could see it starting as snow for most (except Eastern Shore and far southern MD), but not accumulating where it's 33 or so at the surface. Places north and west will hang on to the cold a bit longer, and with heavy precip, it will snow even if it doesn't amount to much. It's most likely going to be a real-time event where every degree makes a difference on what is falling and what is accumulating.

Sounding IMBY per NAM (looking at 3k and 12k) and I hover right at 31/32 the entire time. If it's dumping precip, it should be snow. A sneaky warm nose pops up around hr66 but precip is moving out by then.

The last week has been cold up my way with lows in the 20s/30s - hoping that helps going into the weekend. 1/4 - 31.2 1/3 - 23.9 1/2 - 25.6 1/1 - 31.9 12/31 - 35.2 12/30 - 34.3 12/29 - 37.0

I need just enough snow to get out of driving to Derwood for a family gathering. lol

trends!

cool, see you in the next thread then.

This might help! https://blog.weather.us/guidelines-for-determining-winter-precip-types/

You're right, but even rain/snow line shows up on CC Checking GFS soundings for MBY, and I'm 31-32 the entire time. Going to be a mix of rain, snow, rain/snow even for me.

not as nice as MDs https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-m4z4/Virginia/

Elevation will only help so much, eventually the warmer column will win. Front end thump is where it's at before we all dread the mix line on CC lol